The Rutgers Scarlet Knights (14-18) and UCLA Bruins (21-10) will face off in the third round of the Big Ten tournament on Thursday night, going head-to-head at the United Center in Chicago.
The showdown will tip off at 9 p.m. ET on the Big Ten Network.
The Bruins are 10.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, while Rutgers sits as a +525 underdog. The total is set at 141.5 points.
Rutgers vs. UCLA Preview, Prediction
Rutgers Preview
A 13-point home loss to Central Connecticut State in mid-November largely set the tone for the Scarlet Knights’ season, even though they remained decent at Jersey Mike’s Arena. Rutgers went 10-7 at home, compared to their brutal 4-11 record in road and neutral site contests.
Throughout Big Ten play, the Scarlet Knights capitalized on the bottom tier of the conference. They went 6-0 against the four teams below them in the standings — Northwestern, Oregon, Maryland, and Penn State — but 0-14 against everyone else. But on Wednesday, Rutgers staged a 72-67 upset over Minnesota in the second round of the Big Ten tournament.
NJIT transfer Tariq Francis has been the focal point of the program’s offense this season, averaging 17.3 points and 2.8 assists per game — despite coming off the bench for most of December and January. He is back in the starting lineup, as are Darren Buchanan Jr. and freshman Lino Mark. Buchanan and Dylan Grant bring plenty of size to the top of the rotation with 9.9 and 8.4 points per game, respectively. Down low, senior center Emmanuel Ogbole is putting up 4.5 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks a night.
Rutgers’ opponents shoot 36% from deep on average, which ranks outside the top 300 nationally. The Scarlet Knights’ offense, meanwhile, ranks dead last in the Big Ten in effective field goal percentage.
The Scarlet Knights rank 123rd in the updated KenPom ratings, owning the No. 134 offense and No. 132 defense. As for the NET rankings, Rutgers comes in at No. 131. The program is 0-12 against Quad 1, 3-5 against Quad 2, 6-0 against Quad 3 and 5-1 against Quad 4. Thursday’s game against UCLA constitutes a Quad 1 matchup.
UCLA Preview
The Bruins’ season has featured some high-highs and low-lows, even if they have managed to avoid any crushing upsets to this point. They came just short of knocking off Gonzaga and Arizona in non-conference action, but got off to a 7-3 start in Big Ten play. Things took a turn for the worse when UCLA lost to Indiana in double overtime, sparking a 3-4 stretch that featured blowout losses to Michigan and Michigan State. The Bruins also lost at Minnesota, falling to 1-6 outside the Pacific time zone. And yet, UCLA rattled off three top-10 wins over Purdue, Illinois and Nebraska and closed the regular season on a 4-1 run.
New Mexico transfer point guard Donovan Dent is averaging 13.6 points and 7.5 assists per game, racking up 53 dimes and just two turnovers across his last five appearances. He earned an All-Big Ten honorable mention, while teammate Tyler Bilodeau made the Third Team. The senior forward is averaging 18 points and 5.8 rebounds per game on impressive 52/46/87 splits. Guards Trent Perry and Skyy Clark, along with forward Eric Dailey Jr., are each averaging double figures, as well. Coach Mick Cronin has started rolling with smaller lineups since Clark returned from injury, giving centers Xavier Booker and Steven Jamerson II a combined 12 minutes per game over the team’s last three contests.
UCLA averages the fifth-fewest turnovers per game in the country, also sitting 20th in three-point percentage and 59th in assists per game. However, the Bruins rank in the bottom three of the Big Ten on defense.
Per the latest KenPom ratings, the Bruins rank 22nd on offense, 51st on defense, and 28th overall. They come in at No. 34 in the NET, going 4-7 against Quad 1, 5-3 against Quad 2, 5-0 against Quad 3 and 7-0 against Quad 4. Thursday’s game versus Rutgers constitutes a Quad 3 matchup.
Rutgers vs. UCLA Pick, Best Bet
The Bruins’ struggles away from home are well-documented. Their only win outside of their region was against a horrible Penn State squad, and even that came by just 11 points. In their neutral site showdowns with Arizona and Gonzaga, UCLA failed to cover Bart Torvik’s projected spread. That model has the Bruins projected to win by 10.6 points on Thursday. Given UCLA’s track record of underperforming outside Pauley Pavilion, Rutgers could keep this game competitive.
The Scarlet Knights have covered a 10.5-point spread in seven of their last eight games. They also only lost by four points at Michigan State last Thursday. Including its second-round win over Minnesota, Rutgers is 14-7 against the spread in Big Ten action.
At the same time, the Scarlet Knights have not won a Quad 1 game this season. While Rutgers will likely hang around, the Bruins are heavy favorites for a reason. UCLA beat Rutgers, 98-66, in Westwood last month. The Scarlet Knights getting revenge on neutral ground would constitute a 32-point home-court advantage for the Bruins.
