298 days after Jayson Tatum suffered a torn Achilles tendon, the wait is finally over. He’s expected to make his return from the injury tonight, when the Celtics host the Dallas Mavericks at 7:10 p.m. ET in their final game before a three-game West Coast road trip. The game will be broadcast on ESPN.
With Tatum finally returning, Boston could be completely healthy for the first time all season, as Baylor Scheierman (thumb) is expected to play, though Jordan Walsh (illness) and Tatum are both technically listed as questionable. Besides their season-ending injuries to Dereck Lively II (foot) and Kyrie Irving (ACL), the Mavericks could be without Marvin Bagley III (neck) and Daniel Gafford (injury management), who are both doubtful. Cooper Flagg (foot) is expected to play, and Brandon Williams (quad) and Klay Thompson (adductor) are both probable.
Even with Tatum certain to be on a heavy minutes restriction, the Celtics are 15.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-1200 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 224.5. The Mavericks are +750 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this highly-anticipated contest and offer a prediction.
Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics preview, prediction
As tumultuous as Boston’s last 14 months have been, Dallas’ has arguably been even more of a roller-coaster. The Mavericks traded Luka Dončić for Anthony Davis, saw Davis and Irving suffer injuries, then won the draft lottery to select Flagg before moving on from that era by dealing Davis away and shutting Irving down for the season. But while it’s been a hectic process, and Dallas has won just two of its last 17 games, the future is bright, as Flagg has exceeded expectations in his rookie season and Max Christie and Naji Marshall look like long-term rotation options.
The Celtics have to feel confident, too. Jaylen Brown has stepped into the No. 1 role and played like an MVP contender, averaging 28.9 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per game, and Boston has managed to climb all the way to 41-21, good for second in the Eastern Conference. Critical role players have stepped up around Brown, with Neemias Queta establishing himself as a starting-caliber center and Derrick White continuing to play game-wrecking defense even though his jumper has come and gone. The Celtics didn’t project to be championship contenders, with or without Tatum, but now, a second title in three seasons seems a tangible, tantalizing possibility.
Mavericks at Celtics pick, best bet
Despite his exceptional counting stats, Brown’s on-off numbers make it clear that Boston’s ceiling is higher with a fully healthy Tatum as its best player. This season, the Celtics have actually been 9.6 points per 100 possessions better with Brown off the floor, while Tatum has had a positive on-off impact in all but one of his seasons. At his best, a healthy Tatum should have a particularly large impact on Boston’s offense, which has already been great this season (119.0 points per 100 possessions). At any rate, the Celtics should be better on both sides of the ball than the Mavericks, who have ranked 24th on offense and 23rd on defense since Davis’ final game with the franchise.
Stylistically, Boston could be an extremely difficult matchup for Dallas. The Celtics have been the league’s best team at walling off the paint, allowing 3.2 fewer restricted-area shots per game than any other team and holding opponents to a below-average rate. That’s a particularly major concern for the Mavericks because they’ve gotten downhill at an above-average rate and finished with comparatively poor accuracy. To be fair, Boston doesn’t like to drive much, either — though Tatum could help with that if he’s anywhere near 100% — but it has been among the league’s best finishing teams and Dallas has allowed the ninth-most attempts at the rim since Davis’ injury.
The Celtics should be able to increase their advantage in the interior through strong rebounding, where they have a sizable edge over the Mavericks. For the season, Boston ranks fourth in rebounding percentage — something that Tatum could theoretically help with — and Dallas 18th. The Mavericks could have a slight edge in transition offense — they rank fifth in fast-break points and the Celtics dead last — but Boston is the league’s least turnover-prone team. Dallas should have a massive advantage in free-throw differential, as it has been elite at drawing fouls and the Celtics have drawn the fourth-fewest.
As of late, both teams haven’t done a great job closing out on opposing shooters; since January 9, the Mavericks have given up the sixth-most wide-open threes and Boston the eighth-most. But the main difference is offensive; this season, Dallas ranks just 27th in three-point percentage, while the Celtics rank ninth. In part, that’s because the Mavericks have taken difficult shots; without a true point guard, they rank dead last in wide-open three-point attempts per game, and Boston has been above-average in that facet. Tatum’s presence should be nothing but additive, since he should command plenty of defensive attention if he’s anywhere near healthy and he’s a career 37.0% three-point shooter.
With their shooting and interior advantages, the Celtics should easily win this one. A 15.5-point line is too large for me to be comfortable picking either team against the spread, since it’s possible that Boston could pull its starters in a blowout and the Mavericks could pull off a back-door cover, but with the TD Center crowd likely to be rocking and Tatum likely to play most of his minutes in the first half, I’ll take the Celtics to have at least a 10-point lead after 24 minutes.
