Bayern Münich faced its most difficult challenge of the season last Saturday as it seeks its 13th Bundesliga title in 14 seasons, as it traveled to Signal IDUNA Park to take on Borussia Dortmund. After their 3-2 victory, Die Roten now lead Germany’s top flight by 11 points with 10 matches remaining in the season.
They should comfortably be able to pick up all three points on Friday, when they face Borussia Mönchengladbach at the Allianz Arena. Mönchengladbach is mired in the throes of a relegation battle. The match will begin at 2:30 p.m. ET (8:30 p.m. local).
Bayern is a -900 favorite to win at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Die Fohlen are +1300. There are +800 odds that the teams will draw.
Bayern Munich vs. Monchengladbach prediction, pick
Die Roten have made pretty comfortable work of the league all season, winning each of their first nine games of the season and remaining unblemished until Matchweek 19, when Augsburg pulled off a 2-1 stunner. Its title has never really been in question, but it effectively sealed the deal with its win over Dortmund. Mönchengladbach, on the other hand, started off slow and didn’t pick up its first win until Matchweek 9, but a span of four wins and a draw between Matchweeks 9 and 13 should be enough to keep it up in the top flight. Die Fohlen are in 12th, three points ahead of Werder Bremen, which occupies the promotion-relegation playoffs spot. Mönchengladbach hasn’t been relegated since 2006-07, when it bounced back to the top flight the following season.
Bayern’s dynastic reign over German football shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the talent that it has on its roster. Harry Kane has 30 goals already, more than twice as many as any other player in the Bundesliga, and his teammates Michael Olise and Luis Díaz rank second and third, respectively, in goal contributions. Together, they form an attack that has scored 37 more goals than any other team in the top flight, as well as more expected goals, goals minus expected goals, shots, shots on target, and expected goals per shot than any other team. Defensively, Die Roten have somehow been nearly as solid, giving up the fewest goals, expected goals, and shots on target. Their only flaws are that they’ve won their ground duels at the league’s fourth-lowest rate and have made the most errors leading to a shot, but that’s nit-picking greatness.
So far, Die Fohlen have mostly been held in the top flight by one man, Haris Tabakovic, who has smashed home 13 goals and also ranks second on the team with three assists. The team’s next-leading scorer actually a defender — right-back Kevin Diks — with four goals. All in all, Mönchengladbach has scored more than one goal just once since the start of December, and it ranks seventh-to-last in expected goals and fourth-to-last in goals minus expected goals. Die Fohlen have been slightly better defensively, ranking ninth in expected goals, first in shot-in-box percentage, and third in expected goals per shot. They also lead all of Germany in tackles, ranking in the top eight in both ground-duel and aerial-duel win percentage. Moritz Nicolas hasn’t helped out between the sticks, as Mönchengladbach ranks seventh-to-last in goals minus expected goals, but he is good on his best days, ranking third in clean sheet percentage.
While he’s highly unlikely to keep a clean sheet against Bayern’s marvelous attack, it’s not unreasonable to think that with their high tackle rates, Die Fohlen can keep Die Roten at least somewhat stifled. Given how strong Bayern has been against fast breaks and how much Mönchengladbach will have to rely on counter-attacks, it’s unlikely that Die Fohlen score, but their more patient defensive approach could keep the scoreline fairly low.
