When Manchester United appointed Michael Carrick as caretaker manager prior to the January 17 Premier League tie against Manchester City, he was largely expected to be merely a temporary solution as the United board sought to find a more permanent hire in the summer. But after six wins in seven matches, Carrick has made a strong case that he is the long-term man for the job.
The Red Devils are now third in the Premier League, 13 points behind leaders Arsenal and six points ahead of sixth-place Chelsea, who are currently outside the final Champions League place. They’ll face a difficult test in their quest to hang onto it when they travel to St. James’ Park for a 3:15 p.m. ET (8:15 p.m. local) clash against Newcastle United.
The Magpies are slight +155 favorites to win at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Manchester United is +160. There are +275 odds that the teams will draw.
Newcastle vs. Manchester United prediction, pick
After a slow start to the season under Ruben Amorim, the Red Devils have turned it around, and it’s hard to call Carrick’s six wins a fluke, given that the first two came against Man City and Arsenal, dinging both teams’ hopes in a two-horse title race. Only the Sky Blues have picked up as many points in their last five Premier League matches as Manchester United. Newcastle’s form, meanwhile, could hardly be more different, as only relegation-threatened Tottenham Hotspur and Nottingham Forest have amassed fewer points than the Magpies’ three over their last five matches. Sure, Newcastle put on a show in the Champions League, thrashing Qarabağ 9-3 on aggregate, but the Azerbaijani side is hardly as difficult a matchup as the Red Devils.
The talent all around Manchester United’s roster speaks for itself. Captain Bruno Fernandes is the headliner, as he leads the Premier League with 13 assists while also smashing home seven goals, but he wouldn’t have racked up so many goal contributions if he didn’t have talent around him. Summer signings Bryan Mbeumo (nine goals), Benjamin Šeško (eight), and Matheus Cunha (six) have also been key to a Red Devils attack that has produced the fourth-best chances in the Premier League and scored the third-most goals. Manchester United has arguably gotten unlucky to not have scored even more, having hit the post a league-high 18 times. The Red Devils have paired their attack with a strong defense that has limited opponents to the third-fewest expected goals while ranking near the top of the league in tackles and ground-duel win rate. If not for a shaky Senne Lammens between the sticks, they might even be in the title fight.
The Magpies are also led by a Lusophone central midfielder named Bruno, as Brazilian Bruno Guimarães has scored a team-high nine Premier League goals. He, too, has had plenty of help, as summer signing Nick Woltemade has smashed home seven goals and Anthony Gordon had four goals in the first leg against the Horsemen. Thanks to Guimarães and Woltemade, Newcastle has maintained a top-half attack even after Alexander Isak left for Liverpool, ranking ninth in expected goals and fifth in shots on target. The Magpies’ press-heavy defensive system has also worked: they rank fifth in expected goals, fourth in aerial-duel win percentage, and third in recoveries. But they’ve been let down in inopportune moments by goalkeeper Nick Pope, ranking third-to-last in goals minus expected goals. Pope, in fact, has saved no more than half of the shots on target he’s faced in four of his last six games.
On paper, this matchup is relatively even, but Manchester United has been slightly better in both the attack and the defense, and while Lammens has tightened up as of late, Pope has gotten even messier. With its high aerial win rate, Newcastle could present a challenge for Manchester United, among England’s best crossing and heading teams, but its struggles in ground duels could be a major problem against Carrick’s offense-oriented tactics. In a typical season, St. James’ Park is among the most difficult places for opposing teams to play, but this season, the Magpies have managed just the 11th-most points there. Carrick should get his seventh win in eight.
