It is a jam-packed day of college basketball with plenty of intriguing matchups across the slate. Tipping off at 6:00 p.m. ET, the VCU Rams will face off with the Richmond Spiders.
These two teams faced off just over two weeks ago, which resulted in a 77-69 victory for VCU. However, the Rams failed to cover the 12.5-point spread. Today’s matchup will take place on Richmond’s home court as the pair of A-10 opponents settle the season series.
Looking at the odds, VCU enters as a 7.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Richmond holds +275 odds of winning outright, with the game total set at 155.5 points.
VCU at Richmond prediction, preview
The VCU Rams hold a 19-6 record on the year and have gone 10-2 in Atlantic-10 Conference play. They enter this matchup on an eight-game winning streak, with their last loss coming against George Mason on Jan. 10th. On the season, the Rams have gone 11-14 against the spread, and the game total is 13-12 to the over/under.
Phil Martelli Jr.’s squad is averaging 83.7 points per game, which ranks 39th in the country. VCU ranks 32nd in offensive rating, 96th in field-goal percentage and 50th in three-point percentage. Defensively, it’s allowed the nation’s 148th-fewest points per game. The program ranks 114th in defensive rating, 148th in opponent field-goal percentage, and 193rd in opponent perimeter efficiency.
Terrence Hill Jr. headlines the scoring with 14.4 points per game, shooting an impressive 39.2% from deep — despite mostly coming off the bench. Lazar Djokovic adds 14.0 points and 5.7 boards while also shooting a solid 37.8% mark from downtown. Jadrian Tracey is the lone other player to average in double figures, adding 10.2 points, 3.0 rebounds and 2.0 assists per game. Brandon Jennings, Nyk Lewis, Barry Evans, Michael Belle and Ahmad Nowell round out most of their notable rotation.
The Richmond Spiders hold a 14-11 record on the season but are 4-8 in conference play. They are riding the momentum of a victory over George Mason in their previous game, which snapped a six-game losing skid. On the season, Richmond has gone 12-12 against the spread, with odds not offered for the matchup with DIII Southern Virginia to open the season, and the game total has gone under in 13 of the 24 qualifying contests.
The Spiders are scoring 78.2 points per game, which ranks 133rd out of the 365 qualifying D1 teams. Chris Mooney’s squad also ranks 116th in offensive rating, 172nd in field-goal percentage and 33rd in three-point percentage. On the defensive side of the ball, opponents are scoring 73.6 points per game against Richmond, which ranks 178th in the country. It also ranks 189th in defensive rating, 147th in opponent field-goal percentage and 108th in opponent three-point percentage.
AJ Lopez leads the team in scoring at 12.8 points per game and is shooting 42.5% from beyond the three-point arc. Aiden Argabright is the lone other player averaging in double figures, with 10.7 points and 2.1 assists per game. Jaden Daughtry adds 9.5 points and 3.2 rebounds while shooting 47.6% on three-point attempts. Will Johnston is posting averages of 9.4 points, 3.0 rebounds and 2.3 assists, while Mike Walz, Jonathan Beagle and Mikkel Tyne round out the rest of their notable rotation.
VCU at Richmond pick, best bet
In the first matchup between these two teams, VCU produced a 77-69 victory in a wire-to-wire win. The Rams pushed the lead as large as 17 and outscored Richmond by 12 points from beyond the three-point line and made 12 more free throws than the Spiders. Even still, Richmond was never truly out of the game and covered the 12.5-point spread.
Richmond will have the benefit of home-court advantage in this matchup. It is 7-7 against the spread at home this season, and 5-3 as an underdog. However, VCU has really hit its stride of late, with this narrow victory over Richmond being a low point in its streak of production. The Rams are 10-2 in conference matchups and have won six of the last seven matchups against Richmond. These have not been close matchups either, with VCU producing an average margin of victory of +17.5 across these six victories.
Expect VCU’s ability to control the tempo and 36.6% three-point percentage to be the difference in this game. Richmond ranks 316th in opponent three-point attempts allowed, and VCU can bury the Spiders early if it gets hot. Richmond has also struggled with more physical teams across conference play, and VCU fits this description. The Rams are 4-2 against the spread as road underdogs this year and 5-3 ATS as the road team overall.
Richmond played an impressive game in the first matchup between these two teams, and this was still not enough to generate a lead at any point in the matchup. In the second game between them, expect VCU to play its style successfully and put up points at a rate that its opponents cannot match. The gap in talent between these two teams is larger than the 7.5-point spread indicates, and don’t be shocked if this matchup slips to a full-scale blowout. It felt like Richmond gave its best effort in the first game, and it still wasn’t enough. Look for VCU to bury them today.
