BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier dragged his offense through four touchdown drives against Notre Dame, twice finishing with his own legs. The Cougars have begun finding answers around him with running back LJ Martin out. UCF quarterback Keyone Jenkins has given the Knights lively passing, but BYU should make him earn his first downs through the air at Saturday’s Homecoming game in Orlando. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the UCF Knights and the BYU Cougars.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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UCF vs. BYU prediction, preview
Jenkins threw four touchdowns at Oklahoma State, finding receiver Josh Derry 11 times and tight end Caden Piening seven. UCF completed three 75-yard touchdown drives. Coach Scott Frost has watched this passing offense score from its own end, which matters against a BYU team that let Notre Dame convert all four fourth-down attempts last week. Derry and Piening can make the Cougars defend another snap after an initial stop.
The Knights still struggled to run efficiently in Stillwater. Running back Duke Watson needed 21 carries for 79 yards; fellow back Taevion Swint is now out. UCF also remains without right guard Owen Spell, with center Jacob Maiava questionable. BYU has allowed only 3.1 yards per rush this season. Jenkins should face more drives requiring several accurate throws, while Frost remains cautious about returning quarterback Alonza Barnett III from his hamstring injury. I expect Jenkins to start again; Barnett is questionable.
BYU just held Iowa State to 98 passing yards and two conversions on 13 third downs. Frost needs Jenkins to complete those throws against much better resistance than Oklahoma State offered. Jenkins should find Derry and Piening often enough to score, but the Cougars can force punts by contesting Watson and making him complete the next difficult pass.
Bachmeier has already won through his receivers when BYU’s backs struggled. He threw for 329 yards against Iowa State while running back Preston Rex gained 21 and fellow back Journee Tonga managed 19. Against Notre Dame, Rex improved to 66 yards on ten carries. Running back Sione Moa is also off the injury report; his returning workload remains unconfirmed. Tight end Walker Lyons caught five passes for 49 yards and the winning touchdown, while receiver Legend Glasker caught five for 66. Bachmeier can involve established targets across successive possessions.
BYU vs. UCF pick, best bet
Cougars coach Kalani Sitake still has to protect him. Right guard Kyle Sfarcioc is questionable; replacement guard Zak Yamauchi played against Notre Dame, and freshman right tackle Bott Mulitalo has taken over the starting job. BYU allowed no sacks last week. UCF has held opponents to 3.2 yards per rush and limited TCU to 33 net rushing yards, so Sitake should anticipate another game demanding Bachmeier’s arm and legs.
UCF returns rested to the Acrisure Bounce House while BYU travels after that bruising Notre Dame finish. The Knights can make this competitive through their receivers. Bachmeier can reach Lyons and Glasker after UCF stops Rex, then make the Knights tackle him near the goal line. BYU should finish enough of those drives to win by more than a touchdown.
Best bet: BYU -7 (-108).
Projected score: BYU 27, UCF 17.
Best Bet: BYU -7 (-110) at UCF
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