It was an offseason of big changes for both the Miami Heat and the Charlotte Hornets. Miami said hello to Giannis Antetokounmpo, making the big star swing that Pat Riley has desired for quite some time. Charlotte went in an opposite direction, trading franchise cornerstone LaMelo Ball to the Minnesota Timberwolves. Two directions mean two different sets of expectations, but both teams still expect to beat their division rivals. Let’s see who gets the better of who to kick off Saturday’s slate.
The Heat enter as 3.5-point road favorites with the game total set at 231.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s get into my prediction and best bet for this Eastern Conference matchup.
Heat vs. Hornets Preview
Miami’s commitment to playing “Giannis ball” has been absolute. In their opening-night game against the Timberwolves, Antetokounmpo scored 35 points and grabbed six rebounds. Last night against the Pistons, he took it to a new level with 36 points, 12 rebounds, and five assists. He sure hasn’t missed a step offensively in moving from Milwaukee to Miami.
Unfortunately for Miami, these two big games from their superstar have yielded no wins. The defense — always sharp under head coach Erik Spoelstra — has been soft. In fact, the Heat have allowed 131 and 128 points in their first two games. Shooting was a big offseason concern for the Heat, and they made key additions to address it. It hasn’t panned out so far, as Miami shot 24% from deep in their first game and 29% in their second. The trio of Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins and Tim Hardaway Jr. will need to provide plenty of floor spacing, or this team will struggle.
Last season, the Charlotte Hornets presented a clear identity: shoot a ton of threes and grab a ton of boards. It worked like a charm: they were the league’s best high-volume three-point shooting team and a top-five rebounding team. They made a big offseason bet by moving on from point guard LaMelo Ball and making Brandon Miller and Kon Knueppel the centerpieces of the offense. Naz Reid — the headliner in the return for Ball — is expected to have a massive offensive role as well in Miles Bridges’ absence.
Unfortunately, injuries have kept us from seeing this team’s full potential. Knueppel and backcourt mate Coby White are both out with leg injuries, and big man Grant Williams is, too. Those are two of head coach Charles Lee’s best shooters and one of his most important vets. We’re unlikely to see any of those three on Saturday, giving the Heat a real advantage. That puts a heavy burden on Miller and Reid, who fell flat in a blowout loss to the Hawks on Friday.
Heat vs. Hornets Best Bet
Miami has had trouble stopping its opponents from getting out and running the ball. Charlotte loves to get out and run, but they’re missing some of their best run-and-gun players and are struggling to impose their will. Something has to give here: Miami will find a way to get stops, or the Hornets will roll them over.
My money is on the former. Antetokounmpo will love to get out and run, and the Hornets don’t have the personnel to convert on the space Miami’s slowing defense gives them. This is a great spot for the Heat to get on track and win the first game of the Giannis era.
