Last season, Newcastle United broke its 56-year major trophy drought by winning the Carabao Cup. This season, the Magpies are inching closer to adding another title to the shelf, as they’ve reached the Round of 32 in the FA Cup.
Newcastle has a pretty difficult matchup on the docket for the Round of 32, though, with a date against fellow Premier League side Aston Villa. It’s one of just two Premier League vs. Premier League matchups at this stage in the competition. The match will be held at Villa Park, and it will begin at 12:45 p.m. ET (5:45 p.m. local).
The Villans are +120 favorites to win at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the Magpies are +195. There are +270 odds that the teams will require extra time and/or a penalty shootout.
Aston Villa vs. Newcastle United prediction, pick
These teams both had pretty tough draws, as this Round of 32 matchup would’ve been an all-Premier League affair regardless, with Bournemouth, Newcastle, Villa, and Tottenham all getting drawn in the same section of the bracket. It’s worth noting that the Villans made somewhat more comfortable work of the third round, as their 2-1 result against Spurs was more comfortable than the final result might’ve suggested. The Magpies, on the other hand, required a 95th-minute Anthony Gordon penalty just to send the match to extra time and a penalty shootout to finally outlast the Cherries. Aston Villa is also 14 points ahead of Newcastle in the Premier League table, sitting third to the Magpies’ 10th.
If the Villans have any problems this afternoon, it’ll be in the attack. Morgan Rogers and Ollie Watkins have scored eight goals each in the Premier League, but only seven different Villa players have scored multiple goals, and no player has more than five assists. In fact, the Villans rank just 12th in expected goals, though they’ve made the most of their opportunities, ranking fifth in goals minus expected goals. They’ve been poor on fast-breaks, scoring just one goal from 22 opportunities. But Villa has made up for it on defense, allowing just 27 goals — the third-fewest in the Premier League — and conceding the sixth-lowest proportion of shots in the box. Argentine World Cup legend Emiliano Martínez has been arguably the best goalkeeper in England, leading the Premier League in goals minus expected goals. The Villans also rank near the top of the league in blocks and aerial duel win percentage.
Newcastle is similar in the attack, having scored exactly 37 goals like Villa. The Magpies’ leading scorer, Bruno Guimarães, has one more goal than Rogers and Watkins, and while Nick Woltemade has only seven goals, he’s always a threat with his ability to score bangers. Anthony Gordon also had six in seven Champions League appearances. They rank ninth in expected goals, sixth in shots on target, and they’ve been especially strong from set pieces, recording the most expected goals in such situations. However, Newcastle is extremely vulnerable in the back, having given up 37 goals. Nick Pope and Aaron Ramsdale have struggled in goal, as the Magpies rank fourth-to-last in goals minus expected goals. They also rank near the bottom of the league in tackles and interceptions and have given up an above-average number of fast-break and headed goals.
With Newcastle’s strength on set-pieces and the Villans’ tendency to allow them, a Magpies upset is definitely possible. But Newcastle’s form isn’t great: it has allowed three or more goals in three of its last six matches, plus two in a 2-0 league defeat against Aston Villa. Woltemade, Gordon, and Guimaraẽs are strong enough to give Martínez a challenge, and Yoane Wissa is a wild-card. However, goalkeeper is the most important position on the pitch, and Martínez is the best in the game.
