When Manchester United takes the pitch for today’s 3:15 p.m. ET (8:15 p.m. local) match against West Ham United, it could be a big deal. A Red Devils win would be their fifth in a row (all under new caretaker manager Michael Carrick), and it would allow one Manchester United fan to cut his hair for the first time in more than a year.
The Red Devils are -135 favorites to win at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the Hammers are +320. There are +330 odds that the teams will split the points.
West Ham vs. Manchester United prediction, pick
After its four consecutive wins, Manchester United sits fourth in the Premier League, and though it isn’t realistically in the title fight (it’s 12 points behind Arsenal) and has been eliminated from both cup competitions, it has to be pretty happy about its season overall. The same can’t be said for West Ham, which has sat in the relegation zone for most of the season and, even after three wins in its last four matches, is still three points behind Nottingham Forest and six behind Leeds United and Tottenham. Relegation for the Hammers would be their first since 2010-11, when they immediately bounced back to the top flight.
The Red Devils have figured out their striker issue: after scoring 20 for Brentford last season, Bryan Mbeumo has netted nine goals in 18 matches (an only slightly worse per-90 rate than last season), including three in his last four appearances. In addition to Mbeumo, Bruno Fernandes and Matheus Cunha have each registered six goals, and Fernandes (12 assists) has an outside shot at breaking Thierry Henry and Kevin De Bruyne’s record 20. Fernandes has a goal contribution in each of Manchester United’s matches in 2026. The Red Devils actually lead the Premier League in shots on target per 90 minutes and success rate on crosses, and they’ve arguably been unlucky not to have performed even better, given that they’ve hit the woodwork at the highest rate. Defensively, they’ve also been solid, allowing the third-fewest shots on target, but those shots have been high-quality ones, as they’ve allowed the second-highest rate of shots in the box. They’ve given up the most goals on fast breaks, which could be a byproduct of being among the league’s better teams at playing the offsides trap.
Meanwhile, West Ham has been in some need of attacking options, as besides Jarrod Bowen (eight goals), only Callum Wilson (five), Lucas Paquetá (four), and Crysencio Summerville (four) even have four goals. Plus, no Hammer has more than El Hadji Mallick Diouf’s four assists. All in all, their shots have been worth the sixth-fewest expected goals and they’ve registered the fifth-fewest shots on target, and it’s not like they’ve been very unlucky: they haven’t even done a good job setting up chances, ranking third-to-last in touches in the box. Alphonse Areola has been a problem between the sticks, as West Ham ranks fifth-to-last in goals minus expected goals defensively, and like Manchester United, the Hammers have allowed lots of shots in the box. They also rank fifth-to-last in aerial duel win rate, which could be a problem against a team that loves to generate headers.
Despite the fact that the Red Devils have been beatable on the fast-break and West Ham happens to be among the best teams in such situations, the Hammers’ low aerial win rate and poor goalkeeping will ultimately prove to be too much of a challenge to overcome against a team that has more trouble finishing than it does creating good looks. The Manchester United fan will finally be able to get a haircut thanks to the brilliance of captain Bruno.
