Fortunes can change quickly in the NBA, and the Memphis Grizzlies’ and Golden State Warriors’ fates both changed dramatically in the last couple of weeks, though for wildly different reasons. The Grizzlies finally decided to make a selling move, dealing Jaren Jackson Jr. to the Utah Jazz at the trade deadline, and Jimmy Butler III’s torn ACL rendered the Warriors’ trade deadline unimportant.
These new-look teams will face each other tonight at 10 p.m. ET at Chase Center in San Francisco. Golden State will be without Stephen Curry (knee), Seth Curry (sciatica), LJ Cryer (hamstring), Butler, and the newly-acquired Kristaps Porziņġis (Achilles). Meanwhile, Memphis will remain without Ja Morant (elbow), Zach Edey (ankle), Brandon Clarke (calf), and Santi Aldama (knee), while new acquisition Walter Clayton Jr. (calf) is questionable after getting injured in his second game with the team.
The Warriors are 9.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-395 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 220.5. The Grizzlies are +310 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this intra-conference clash and offer a prediction.
Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors preview, prediction
Memphis is just 1-2 since dealing away Jackson, but its lone win came against the Sacramento Kings, who have lost each of their last 12 games. The Grizzlies likely won’t be concerned with the results, though; instead, they’ll be more encouraged by the fact that Ty Jerome has averaged 20.0 points per game on 57-43-86 shooting splits in his first four starts with the team. Memphis also welcomed Scotty Pippen Jr. back after a toe injury, and he had 13 points in his season debut, so with him and Jerome healthy, the Grizzlies have more point guard depth than they’ve had all season.
Golden State is 1-2 in its last three games as well, though the fact that it lost to the Los Angeles Lakers by just six points and beat the Phoenix Suns despite not having Stephen Curry is fairly encouraging. Pat Spencer has taken advantage of his expanded role, recording 13 or more points in each of the last three games, and Gui Santos has been pretty solid in his three starts. As long as Draymond Green’s shot improves slightly (he’s a combined 11-for-35 over his last five games), the Warriors could start to win games.
Grizzlies at Warriors pick, best bet
Without Curry, Golden State’s offense has been extremely poor. In his 1,221 minutes, the Warriors have scored 120.2 points per 100 possessions, the equivalent of the league’s second-best offense, but in his 1,334 minutes on the bench, Golden State has scored just 111.5 points per 100 possessions, which would be the league’s sixth-worst mark. The Warriors have more than made up for that deficit defensively — Curry isn’t a great individual defender — but some of those minutes were with defense-first units led by the now-absent Butler. Curry has made his team better overall in 14 of the 16 seasons in which he played more than 10 games, so I’d be surprised if that continued to be the case.
Either way, Golden State’s offense won’t necessarily need to be great against a Memphis team that has ranked in the league’s bottom 12 overall, lost an elite rim protector in Edey (who more or less single-handedly carried the Grizzlies’ defense in the 11 games he played), and traded away a former Defensive Player of the Year in Jackson. Driving will be especially key for Golden State against a Memphis team that already allowed the sixth-highest shooting percentage in the restricted area even after accounting for Jackson’s and Edey’s contributions. With Edey and Clarke out and Jackson and Jock Landale off the roster, the Grizzlies don’t have a traditional center, as they started six-foot-nine GG Jackson in the middle on Saturday.
Without a center, Memphis could have an issue on the glass in the long run. The Grizzlies have had an above-average rebounding percentage overall, but the 284 minutes that Edey played have been the sole difference between them being above- and below-average, and despite being much-panned for his mediocre rebounding, Jackson was also a positive asset on the boards overall. Still, Memphis has a pretty good matchup in Golden State, which ranks in the bottom 10 in rebounding percentage. The Warriors also don’t draw many fouls, and Curry’s and Butler’s absences won’t help.
Shooting-wise, Golden State should still have plenty of opportunities, as the Grizzlies have allowed the third-most wide-open threes per game, but the Warriors won’t be as well-equipped to take advantage of them without Curry, who ranks second in accuracy among the 57 players who have attempted at least three wide-open triples per game. Defensively, Golden State has only been league-average at closing out, and Memphis — which has been nearly as good as the Warriors at generating wide-open threes — has some solid shooters still in Cam Spencer and Jerome.
It’s very difficult to predict either of these teams, given how much change each of them underwent at the trade deadline, but with Curry out, Golden State’s 9.5-point line feels like a lot. The Warriors’ defensive improvement is likely real, but they aren’t likely to take advantage of the Grizzlies’ weakness on the glass and their shooting edge is small without Curry’s shooting and gravity.
