Prior to the 2025 NFL Draft, the rookie class’s running back hierarchy appeared to consist of Ashton Jeanty at the top and every other back below. But while Jeanty had a solid rookie season, he wasn’t the running back who made the biggest impact on his team.
Instead, the New England Patriots’ TreVeyon Henderson led the Patriots with 1,132 scrimmage yards and 10 total touchdowns, helping New England reach Super Bowl LX on Sunday against the Seattle Seahawks.
Though he’s taken a back seat to veteran Rhamondre Stevenson so far these playoffs, he could still play a factor on Sunday. The Patriots are 4.5-point underdogs on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 45.5.
Below, I’ll break down Henderson’s odds of scoring a touchdown and offer a verdict as to whether or not he’ll do so.
Will TreVeyon Henderson score a touchdown?
TreVeyon Henderson anytime touchdown odds: +475
Henderson’s odds are so long in part because his workload has dramatically fallen off in the playoffs. After averaging 10.6 rushing attempts per game during the regular season, including 15.0 per game during a six-week stint as the featured back, Henderson has amassed just 8.0 carries per game during the playoffs. He was only on the field for four snaps in the AFC Championship Game, turning three carries into five yards. He did score twice in the season finale against the Miami Dolphins, but those have been his only touchdowns in his last six games.
To be fair, that AFC Championship Game probably isn’t the best indication of how New England’s carries will be distributed in the Super Bowl. A snowstorm blanketed Empower Field at Mile High in the second half, making offense almost impossible, and while Stevenson received a team-high 25 carries in that game, it was a defensive battle in which mistake mitigation was more important than offensive diversity. The Patriots will presumably focus more on utilizing both running backs’ skills in the Super Bowl.
Still, any running back going against the Seahawks’ front seven would be up for a tough task. Seattle had arguably the league’s best run defense during the regular season, allowing the third-fewest total yards (on the fewest yards per attempt) and the second-fewest rushing touchdowns while racking up the most expected points. To be fair, six of the 10 games in which they allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards came before their Week 8 bye, but the Seahawks gave up 110 yards or fewer in each of their playoff games and didn’t allow a rushing touchdown in either.
It’s possible that Henderson could score, especially as a receiver — Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams did get on the board with a receiving touchdown in the NFC Championship Game, and Seattle was somewhat more vulnerable through the air against the position — but he struggled too much as a pass-protector to be on the field much on passing downs. He’s talented enough that +475 are friendly odds, but a score would be a surprise.
Verdict: No
