Super Bowl LX is a matchup of surprises, as each team missed the playoffs in the previous season, the Seattle Seahawks at 7-10 and the New England Patriots at 4-13. For each team to make it this far required a breakout season from a somewhat surprising candidate.
Seattle’s offseason decision to trade D.K. Metcalf to the Pittsburgh Steelers suggested confidence in third-year wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but even the most optimistic Seahawks fan surely couldn’t have seen this tremendous campaign coming. Smith-Njigba led the league in receiving yards and has found the end zone in 10 of his 19 games between the regular season and the playoffs.
For Seattle to avenge its 2015 Super Bowl defeat and lift its second-ever Lombardi Trophy, it may well need Smith-Njigba to find paydirt again. The Seahawks are 4.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 45.5.
Below, I’ll break down Smith-Njigba’s odds of scoring a touchdown and offer a verdict as to whether or not he’ll do so.
Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba score a touchdown?
Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime touchdown odds: -110
Sam Darnold clearly trusts Smith-Njigba, especially in high-leverage situations: he finished fifth in the NFL in targets and fourth in catches. 40 of Darnold’s 79 third- and fourth-down passing attempts and 17 of his 66 red zone passing attempts went to Smith-Njigba. During the NFC Championship Game, Smith-Njigba’s 12 targets were double those of the next Seattle receiver (Cooper Kupp). His touchdown in the dying moments of the second quarter ultimately gave the Seahawks a lead that they would never relinquish.
It’s just as well that Darnold should trust him: he led all high-volume receivers in yards per route run and finished second in Pro Football Focus’ receiving grades, behind only Puka Nacua. He was one of three high-volume receivers to record a perfect 99.9 grade on deep targets, and of those three, he was the most sure-handed. With Seattle’s other main touchdown-scoring weapon, running back Zach Charbonnet, done for the season with a torn ACL, trusting Smith-Njigba is a great failsafe.
To be fair, New England has a good secondary, but it still tied for the seventh-most touchdowns allowed to opposing wide receivers during the regular season. Smith-Njigba could have some trouble if he lines up on the outside against Christian González, who allowed just one touchdown and a sub-50% completion percentage in coverage, but he might fare better in his slot snaps against Marcus Jones, who ranked second in the league with eight touchdowns allowed.
The Patriots’ defensive style should work in Smith-Njigba’s favor. New England operates in man coverage at the league’s ninth-highest rate, and Smith-Njigba scored touchdowns on a much higher percentage of his targets against man than against zone. The Patriots were also among the league’s worst teams at getting pressure, which should allow Smith-Njigba’s deeper route tree to develop.
Verdict: Yes
