It is a busy Saturday of college basketball with plenty of notable matchups on the slate. In an ACC matchup tipping off at 6:00 p.m. ET, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish will face off with the Syracuse Orange.
These two programs have played 58 times in their history. Syracuse is 35-23 in these matchups and has won four of the last five between these two teams. While this is not a season that either program will likely view as close to their peak, this should still be a really solid matchup.
Looking at the odds, Syracuse enters as a 4.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook and holds -205 odds of winning outright. Notre Dame holds +170 odds of getting the outright victory, with the game total set at 145.5.
Notre Dame at Syracuse prediction, preview
Notre Dame enters with an 11-10 record and has gone just 2-6 in ACC play. The Fighting Irish enter this matchup having dropped six of their past seven games, with the lone victory coming over Boston College. Notre Dame is 11-10 against the spread this season, and the game total has gone over in 13 of its 21 games played.
The root of the issues for Notre Dame has largely fallen on the offensive end. Micah Shrewsberry’s squad is averaging 74.0 points per game, which ranks 241st out of the 365 qualifying D1 teams. The Fighting Irish rank 213th in field-goal percentage, 93rd in three-point percentage, 314th in assists per game and 149th in turnovers per game. Defensively, opponents are scoring 71.5 points per game against Notre Dame, which ranks 128th in the country. It ranks 209th in defensive rating, 108th in opponent field-goal percentage, 89th in opponent three-point percentage and 348th in turnovers forced.
Markus Burton headlines the scoring for Notre Dame, averaging 18.5 points, 3.7 assists and 2.8 rebounds per game. However, Burton suffered a broken ankle on Dec. 5th and remains sidelined without a timetable for return. Jalen Haralson is posting averages of 15.0 points and 3.7 rebounds of his own. Braeden Shrewsberry is averaging 11.5 points, 2.8 rebounds and shooting an ACC-leading 42.0% on three-point attempts. Cole Certa adds 10.3 points per game, while Carson Towt and Sir Mohammed also play key roles in the rotation.
The Syracuse Orange enter with a 12-9 record on the season and have gone 3-5 in ACC play. They enter this matchup on a four-game losing skid, which has come against Boston College, Virginia Tech, Miami and NC State. Syracuse has gone 9-12 against the spread this season, and the game total has gone over in 11 of the 21 games.
Adrian Autry’s group is scoring 75.3 points per game, which ranks 211th among D1 teams. Syracuse also ranks 205th in offensive rating, 100th in team field-goal percentage, 223rd in team three-point percentage and 266th in three-point volume. Defensively, opponents are scoring 69.9 points per game against the Orange, which is the 80th-best rate in the country. They rank 71st in defensive rating, 83rd in opponent field-goal percentage, 101st in opponent three-point percentage, and they block the fourth-most shots per game in the country.
Donnie Freeman headlines the production for Syracuse, posting averages of 19.2 points and 7.4 rebounds. JJ Starling and Nate Kingz also average in double figures, combining for 21.7 points per game. William Kyle III adds 9.5 points and 7.5 rebounds, along with an ACC-leading 2.7 blocks per game. Tyler Betsey shoots a team-best 40.5% on three-point attempts, while Naithan George rounds out the starting lineup with 9.7 points, a team-high 5.3 assists and 3.1 rebounds per game.
Notre Dame at Syracuse pick, best bet
Neither of these teams is playing its best basketball right now. Syracuse has lost four consecutive games in which it has failed to cover the spread in each, while Notre Dame is 1-5 against the spread in its last six games. My lean would be toward Syracuse having success in front of its home crowd and finding a way to cover the 4.5-point spread.
But there does not seem to be a significant edge on either side, and I am backing the game total to go over the 145.5-point total. These teams have gone over the game total in 12 of their past 14 games combined. Both teams have had some defensive struggles of late, with Notre Dame allowing 85 points per game over its past three games and Syracuse conceding 83 points per game over its past three matchups.
These defensive issues stem from more than just the past three games. Notre Dame is allowing 81.9 points per game over its past seven games, while Syracuse is conceding 83.2 points per game across its past five. While neither offense particularly inspires confidence, it has looked like layup lines for teams playing these two teams in recent matchups.
Expect enough opportunities for easy transition chances and for both sides to fail to provide the level of necessary resistance from a defensive perspective throughout. The 145.5-point total is manageable by college basketball standards, with these teams just needing to reach 73 points each to clear this. Syracuse has done this in 14 of its 21 games this year, and Notre Dame is coming off a 97-point performance in the previous game and has scored as many as 102 in a game this season.
Count on the defensive issues to continue causing problems for both sides in this matchup and for the points to appear easy to come by. This is a get-right game for both sides, but neither has inspired confidence with their recent play. Stay away from a side and back the game total to surpass the 145.5-point total.
