Kansas Speedway is a 1.5-mile intermediate with progressive banking, built for cars that hold speed over a run rather than flash it for a lap. This is race four of the ten-race Chase, with just a single point separating first from second. Seven races remain, and Kansas has a habit of shuffling that order fast.
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NASCAR Best Bets for the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas
Race Winner — Denny Hamlin (+450)
This is the same pick as last week, and the season-long numbers still back it. Doubling down on Christopher Bell eventually hit, so trusting Denny Hamlin isn’t radical. It’s the opposite of radical in Kansas. Across nine Gen7-era starts at Kansas, his average running position is 6.5, and that pace has shown up in his finishes. Hamlin’s average finish seventh leads the Cup Series. At the intermediate tracks this season, his average running position is 7.5, also the best mark among the field of playoff contenders.
The playoff results themselves tell a different story, and it’s worth saying plainly. He finished 18th at Darlington, ninth at Gateway, and eighth at Bristol. That’s three playoff races without a top-5 finish despite entering the postseason as the No. 1 seed. That stretch cost him the points lead. Is this another classic Hamlin choke job? His running position stayed strong during those races even as the finishes fell short, which points to late-race trouble rather than a car that isn’t fast enough. Kansas, a track where both his running position and his finishing average lead the field, is a fair spot to bet on one of those weeks finally closing out clean.
Race Winner — Kyle Larson (+350)
He holds the points lead by a single point, and Kansas has been kind to him. His two wins in nine Gen7-era starts lead the Cup Series. His average finish of 5.8 is the best of anyone in this field. He also finished second in the spring race this year, one spot behind Tyler Reddick’s super-hot Toyota.
His average finish on intermediate tracks this season is 13.6, well behind Hamlin’s 6.1. Kansas has historically been one of the tracks where his raw speed overcomes a rougher week-to-week finishing record. Kansas and Las Vegas are similar intermediate tracks with progressive banking. The racing line changes. Dirt-track racers are expert at driving with their eyes and butts. They adapt to fast racing grooves faster than other drivers. Kansas and Las Vegas have been Larson’s best 1.5-mile ovals. The market agrees. Yung Money is barely plus money. He is the clear favorite and deserves to be.
