Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top two home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Wednesday’s robust slate: Paul Goldschmidt and Mickey Moniak.
Let’s break them down.
MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Paul Goldschmidt | +620 | In his 179 plate appearances against LHPs this season, Goldschmidt is slashing .307/.402/.588 with a .281 ISO and a 175 wRC+. 11 of the 18 home runs he’s hit have come versus southpaws. As for Seymour’s role in all this, since the All-Star break, Seymour has conceded a whopping 2.15 opponent long balls per nine with a massive 12.3% opponent barrel rate. |
| Mickey Moniak | +430 | Tonight, Merrill Kelly will have to pitch at Coors Field. It’s a fitting farewell to the 37-year-old’s underwhelming campaign, as Kelly struggled to a first percentile xERA (6.47) and a third percentile opponent barrel rate (11.4%). Meanwhile, Moniak is one long ball away from matching his career-high set in 2025 (24), and he’s in possession of a .268 ISO against right-handed pitching. |
In-depth analysis below.
MLB Home Run Props Analysis
Paul Goldschmidt 1+ Home Run (+620)
At this point in his career, Goldschmidt is solely a platoon bat for the Yankees; but rest assured, he’s an elite one. In his 179 plate appearances against LHPs this season, Goldschmidt is slashing .307/.402/.588 with a .281 ISO and a 175 wRC+. 11 of the 18 home runs he’s hit have come versus southpaws, which is why Aaron Boone often leads off with the veteran when New York is opposed by one — as they will be tonight in the form of Ian Seymour. As for Seymour’s role in all this, while the 27-year-old is amazing at generating whiffs, hitters have been able to do some serious damage when actually making contact. Since the All-Star break, Seymour has conceded a whopping 2.15 opponent long balls per nine with a massive 12.3% opponent barrel rate. Goldschmidt should be licking his chops.
Mickey Moniak 1+ Home Run (+430)
There’s a reason that they often say irony is cruel. In what is almost assuredly the last time he’ll take the mound in 2026 — and maybe the last time he’ll do so in his career — Merrill Kelly will have to pitch at Coors Field. It’s a fitting farewell to the 37-year-old’s underwhelming campaign, as Kelly struggled to a first percentile xERA (6.47) and a third percentile opponent barrel rate (11.4%). But the big question is: Which Rockies hitter will be able to take advantage of the matchup? Kelly gave up a majority of his 28 home runs to LHBs, 1.87 per nine to be exact, so that narrows the field a bit. For my taste, the answer is Mickey Moniak. The former first-overall pick is one long ball away from matching his career-high set in 2025 (24), and he’s in possession of a .268 ISO against right-handed pitching. Seems simple enough.
