The fourth round of the Australian Open begins on Saturday night for American viewers. The No. 2 player in the world, Carlos Alcaraz, takes on the No. 20 player, Tommy Paul.
This is my best bet to target on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Alcaraz vs. Paul match.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Tommy Paul Preview
Carlos Alcaraz is looking to complete the career Grand Slam at this year’s Australian Open. Despite winning two Grand Slams at each of the three other major venues, Alcaraz has never even made the final here in Melbourne. If he can win the title this year, he would become the youngest man to ever win the career Grand Slam. Through three matches at this year’s Australian Open, Alcaraz is not messing around. He has yet to drop a set and just demolished Corentin Moutet in the previous round. The matches start to get really tough for Alcaraz the rest of the way, starting with this matchup against Tommy Paul.
Tommy Paul has been a great player for the past several years, but he has never broken through at a Grand Slam to make a final. Australia has been Paul’s best Grand Slam venue over the years, however. He made his only career Grand Slam semifinal in Melbourne in 2023, then made the quarterfinals last year. He has been fantastic so far at this year’s Australian Open as well. He won both of his first two matches in three sets, then won the first two sets against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 6-1, 6-1 before Davidovich Fokina had to retire. It would be one of the biggest wins of Paul’s career if he could upset Alcaraz here, but with the form he’s in, he certainly has a chance.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Tommy Paul Pick, Best Bet
My best bet for this match is for Tommy Paul to cover the spread of +2.5 sets against Carlos Alcaraz. Paul and Alcaraz have faced off seven times in the past. Paul won two of the first three matchups before Alcaraz became the machine that we know now. Alcaraz has won each of the past four, including a Wimbledon quarterfinal and a Roland-Garros quarterfinal. Although it’s worth noting, each of Alcaraz’s past three victories over Paul have come on grass or clay. Tommy Paul’s preferred surface is hardcourt, and that is where each of his two wins against Alcaraz came.
It would be a momentous upset for Paul to beat Alcaraz here. However, Alcaraz’s struggles in Australia can’t be ignored, and neither can Paul’s success. Tommy Paul has been just as dominant as Alcaraz through the first three rounds and only had to play 14 games in the previous round. So, Paul should be feeling fresh and ready for this match. When he was eliminated by Alexander Zverev in the quarterfinals last year, Paul managed to steal a set. He should take at least one set off Alcaraz as well in this monumental matchup.
