For Matchweek 23, the Premier League is throwing it all the way back, as each of the matches is the reverse fixture from Matchweek 1. Instead of looking clear-eyed at the season ahead, teams have their heads down, locked in on a title race that is very much still alive.
Aston Villa is one of the three teams with a realistic shot at hoisting the Premier League trophy, as it is seven points behind Arsenal. The Villans’ opponents this weekend, Newcastle United, are 17 points behind the Gunners but just two points behind Manchester United in the final guaranteed Champions League qualification spot. The match will kick off at St. James’ Park at 9 a.m. ET (2 p.m. local) on Sunday.
The Magpies are +100 favorites to win at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Villa is +260. There are +275 odds that the teams will split the points.
Newcastle United vs. Aston Villa prediction, pick
Parity has ruled the day as of late in England’s top flight, as no team has more than three wins or three losses in its last five matches, but as recent form goes, Newcastle has been better than the Villans. The Magpies have picked up three wins and a draw from their last four matches, though their competition (Burnley, Crystal Palace, Leeds, and Wolves) hasn’t been the most impressive. They also just earned a 3-0 win over an inconsistent-but-talented PSV Eindhoven in the Champions League. Villa, meanwhile, broke an 11-game home winning streak with a 1-0 loss to Everton and only narrowly picked up a win in the Europa League at Fenerbahçe thanks to a heroic effort from backup goalkeeper Marco Bizot. The Villans’ recent opponents (Chelsea, Arsenal, Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace, and Everton) have been harder, but their results (two wins, a draw, and two losses) have been worse.
For Aston Villa, much depends on health. Morgan Rogers and Ollie Watkins are a strong duo, each scoring seven goals in the Premier League, and if Emiliano Martínez — who missed the match in Türkiye because of a minor calf injury — is healthy, the Villans are pretty strong in both the front and the back, especially with Leon Bailey returning from his loan spell at Roma. The losses of Boubacar Kamara and John McGinn hurt, but Lamare Bogarde and Emi Buendía stepped in nicely during the Europa League, combining for five tackles + interceptions. Villa doesn’t thrive on volume, notching just the eighth-most shots on target per 90 minutes and allowing the seventh-most, but it has scored the third-most goals per shot on target and conceded the fourth-fewest. While the Villans have recorded the fewest tackles + interceptions, they’ve played the offsides trap to perfection, forcing the most in the league.
That high-risk defensive strategy might not work so well against a Newcastle team that is finding its groove in the attack. Between Nick Woltemade and Bruno Guimarães, the Magpies’ attacking options are deep, and Yoane Wissa played his best game with the club against PSV, registering both a goal and an assist. As its front line has started to click, Newcastle has scored three or more goals in four of its last seven games, and Nick Pope has saved each of the three shots on target he’s faced in the last two matches, ranking third in save percentage overall. The Magpies have both generated shots on target and limited opponents from getting shots on target at a better rate than Aston Villa, and while they haven’t finished with nearly the same efficiency, a fully fit Wissa, who finished sixth in goals and just outside the top 10 in goals per shot on target last season, could help with that. Newcastle also isn’t particularly vulnerable to the offsides trap, getting caught in a poor position the fourth-fewest times.
Home-pitch advantage takes the North East England side over the top. The Magpies have lost just twice at St. James’ Park all season, picking up 23 points from 11 games (more than all but four teams). To be fair, Villa has been comparatively good on the road, ranking second with 18 points from 11 games, but it has gotten extremely lucky to post the 5-3-3 record that it has, given its negative-one goal difference. If Martínez plays, the Villans have a pretty good shot of holding Newcastle to one or fewer goals, but they can’t keep relying on their goalkeepers to save them forever.
