The Broncos and Patriots face off in the AFC Championship at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday, Jan. 25.
New England is a 4.5-point favorite and -238 on the moneyline, while Denver is +195 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at 42.5 points.
Here are my top Jarrett Stidham prop bets for the Broncos vs. Patriots AFC Championship matchup on Sunday.
Best Jarrett Stidham Prop Bets
This is less than ideal for Denver. After earning the No. 1 seed and punching its ticket to the AFC Championship, the team will be without Bo Nix. The starting quarterback suffered a season-ending ankle injury, leaving Jarrett Stidham in line to start the AFC Championship.
Stidham has started four career games, all of which came in the regular season. This is easily the biggest stage of his professional career, and he’s going against an excellent defense in New England. The Patriots allowed the fourth fewest points and eighth fewest yards this season. The pass defense was worse than the run defense, but both units were solid.
The Patriots’ defense recorded four interceptions, one fumble and three sacks in the win vs. Houston. Forcing that many takeaways again is unlikely, but another strong performance is probable.
Stidham hasn’t started a game since the 2023 season, but he’s been with Denver for the past three years. This should work in Stidham’s favor as being familiar with the offense is key in such a high-pressure game. Familiarity and home-field advantage should benefit Stidham in this matchup.
Even with these advantages, it’s unlikely that Stidham is the reason for the Broncos’ victory. If Denver wins, it’ll be due to its defense. Because of this, I’m expecting a sloppy, low-scoring affair between the two AFC clubs. Although both teams have elite run defenses, it’s likely the backfields get a lot of work. It’s a safer offense that allows the defenses to make plays and dictate the game.
In the event that Stidham passes a lot, I believe the Patriots’ defense shuts him down for the most part. He’ll fall under 19.5 completions.