The Oregon State Beavers take on the Saint Mary’s Gaels on Wednesday night in a West Coast college basketball matchup. The game tips off at 11 p.m. ET in Moraga, California.
The Gaels are listed as 19.5-point home favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at O/U 141.5 points. Let’s dive into a full preview, prediction, and pick for this WCC showdown.
Oregon State at Saint Mary’s prediction, preview
Oregon State had a rough start to its season, going 7-6 in non-conference play. It has not gotten any better in the West Coast Conference, with the program sporting a 3-5 record so far. Once a competitive Pac-12 program, it has been a rough few years for Oregon State. In his 12th season helming the Beavers, Wayne Tinkle has seemingly lost his hold on the program. They are recruiting poorly, and the results on the court are consistently poor. The Beavers currently rank 213th on KenPom, behind the likes of Monmouth and Central Arkansas. Oregon State has one player doing most of the work this season. Josiah Lake II leads the team in points (13), rebounds (4.3), assists (3.8), and steals (1.5) this season — solid production, but not dominant enough to be the team’s clear top option.
Saint Mary’s has done a much better job at upholding its standards this season, boasting a 17-3 overall record with just one in-conference loss so far. Standout forward Paulius Murauskas has led the way for the Gaels, averaging 19.3 points and 7.5 rebounds per game. The Gaels are hoping to compete with Gonzaga for the conference title and punch a ticket to the NCAA Tournament. They rank 33rd in the nation on KenPom and are a well-balanced team. Saint Mary’s should have a strong chance of making it into the Big Dance if it continues to take care of inferior opponents — like Oregon State.
Oregon State at Saint Mary’s pick
My best bet for this game is for Oregon State and Saint Mary’s to finish under the total of 141.5 points. Oregon State is one of the slowest-paced teams in the nation, ranking 300th in adjusted tempo. The Beavers struggle to score the rock in general, and it will only be even tougher against a Saint Mary’s unit that is strong on the defensive end. The Gaels lead the West Coast Conference in scoring defense, allowing just 65 points per game. And they’re in no rush on the other end, either, ranking 285th in adjusted tempo.
These are two of the slowest teams in the country, and Oregon State should really struggle to score. Expect a low-scoring affair on Wednesday night.
