Closing down the Week 2 Sunday slate, the Colts and Chiefs will be facing off in the primetime spot. The Colts are looking to bounce back from their opening week loss to the Ravens, while the Chiefs made a clear statement that their championship window is not closed with a 31-10 win over the Broncos.
Looking at the odds for the Week 2 SNF matchup, the Chiefs enter as six-point favorites with -265 Moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Colts hold +215 odds to pull off the upset, with the game total set at O/U 46.5 points.
But there are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond backing a side or total. Let’s take a look at my top three favorite player props for the Week 2 Sunday Night Football matchup.
Colts vs. Chiefs Odds
Colts vs. Chiefs NFL Player Prop Bets for Sunday Night Football
Patrick Mahomes Over 219.5 Passing Yards (-111)
Kenneth Walker III announced his presence in Kansas City in his Chiefs’ debut, rushing for 173 yards and a touchdown. While Walker III will continue to play a notable role and provide a different style to the Kansas City attack, it should still be made clear that the outlook for the organization is still built around Mahomes. The three-time Super Bowl MVP looked like himself in his first game back from last year’s season-ending ACL tear. Mahomes showed a willingness with his legs and completed 15 of his 27 pass attempts for 184 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception.
Had it not been for the Chiefs holding a comfortable lead throughout the matchup, Mahomes would have tallied much more production through the air. His career 284.4 passing yard per game average is the highest in NFL history. Mahomes has never averaged fewer than 245.5 passing yards per game over a season. While the Chiefs had no problem finding ways to exploit them, his 184 passing yards in Week 1 came against a strong Broncos defense that is largely expected to be one of the best units in the league. Denver is especially strong in their secondary, and Kansas City was forced to adjust by leaning on a short-yardage attack.
The Colts will not be capable of providing the same level of resistance through the air that the Broncos showed last week. Indianapolis was gashed for 41 points by the Ravens in Week 1, which included Lamar Jackson throwing for 324 yards through the air. Kansas City’s defense is banged up, and this could lead to a high-scoring battle. Mahomes also threw for a season-high 352 passing yards last season against the Colts. Take advantage of the low passing prop number as the season gets settled and count on Mahomes exceeding this in the Week 2 matchup, with over 219.5 passing yards through the air.
Tyquan Thornton Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
One of the beneficiaries of a more prominent passing attack will be Thornton. He was held without a catch in the season opener and was targeted just once. But Thornton had a career-best season in his first year in Kansas City and a great chance to build off this. He also logged 68.1% of the offensive snaps after playing just 38.3% last year. Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Travis Kelce are each talented in their own right, but there is room for production across the board from the Chiefs’ pass catchers.
16.5 receiving yards is a low prop total that can be eclipsed in just one catch. He exceeded this total in eight of his 14 games played last season, including as many as 90 yards through the air in a game. Thornton is a deep play threat, and this is a Colts defense that is exploitable in these types of chances. Baltimore tallied two plays of 50+ yards through the air twice last week and expect this to be an area that the Chiefs have circled as the game plan.
Going without a catch in the season opener was not a great sign for Thornton last week, but his increase in snaps is reassuring. The Broncos defense is excellent at keeping opponents in front of them and limiting big plays, which impacts Thornton’s outlook in a major way. Expect this to change against the Colts and for the Baylor product to make his mark on the season for the first time. Back the 16.5 receiving yard total to be too low and consider some alternate lines as well.
Tyler Warren to Record Anytime Touchdown (+220)
On the other side of the matchup, Warren is a dynamic weapon that the Colts lean on at a high rate. After selecting him with the 14th overall pick in last year’s draft, Warren pulled in 76 receptions for 817 yards and tallied five total touchdowns across his rookie year. The Penn State product recorded a touchdown last week, and his success alongside Daniel Jones is especially notable. The outlook for the Colts was promising for the bulk of the year, but the season-ending Achilles tear to Jones limited the outlook for Warren and the team as they skidded to the finish line and missed the playoffs outright.
With the Colts’ starting quarterback back on the field, expect Warren’s production to remain at the level he flashed for the bulk of the year. He played 93% of the snaps last week and ran routes on 88% of Jones’ dropbacks. There is also the added benefit of Warren being utilized in short-yardage rushing situations at times. The 24-year-old tallied one rushing touchdown last year and can be used in short-yardage and tush-push situations.
While the Chiefs’ defense was widely effective last week in limiting the Broncos’ attack, Denver had success utilizing the tight end spot. Evan Engram led the team with four receptions for 43 yards, and recorded the lone touchdown of the game. Warren is an even more dynamic talent and carries more importance to the Colts’ offensive attack. Expect Indianapolis to have their star tight end circled as a key part of the game plan as the top target in the red zone, and for Warren to reach the end zone for the second straight week.
