Rounding out Saturday night’s nine-game NBA slate, the Portland Trail Blazers will host the Los Angeles Lakers at the Moda Center.
This will mark the third and final matchup of these two Western Conference opponents this season. The Trail Blazers produced a 122-108 victory in the first matchup on Oct. 27, while the Lakers won 123-115 on Nov. 3.
The Trail Blazers enter as 3.5-point home favorites and hold -142 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Lakers are +120 underdogs with the game total set at 223.5 points.
Let’s dive into a preview and prediction for the Saturday night matchup.
Lakers vs. Trail Blazers Preview
The Lakers hold a 24-15 record on the season and sit in sixth place in the Western Conference. They have hit a bit of a rough patch of late, losing four of their last five games — and eight of their last 13. Los Angeles is 21-18 against the spread and has surpassed the game total in 24 of 39 matchups.
Injuries will be a factor in tonight’s matchup for both sides. Luka Doncic has been ruled out with a groin injury, while Jaxson Hayes, Adou Thiero, and Austin Reaves all remain out. Deandre Ayton is also listed as questionable.
LeBron James will headline the production of the available players. The future Hall of Fame is still averaging 22.7 points, 6.9 assists, and 5.8 rebounds in his age-41 season. Jake LaRavia has been plugged into the starting lineup in recent games and given the team a nice boost. Marcus Smart, Rui Hachimura, and Jarred Vanderbilt have each also had some nice flashes.
The Lakers are averaging 116.5 points per game, which ranks 16th in the NBA. They rank eighth in offensive rating, second in field-goal percentage and free throw attempts, but just 24th in three-point percentage. On the other end, opponents are scoring 116.9 points per game against them, which ranks 18th in the league. They also rank 26th in defensive rating, 28th in opponent field goal percentage, 25th in opponent three-point percentage, and 21st in pace.
The Trail Blazers hold a 20-22 record on the season, which slots them in ninth place in the West. They have won six of their last eight games entering this matchup. Portland is 23-19 against the spread and has topped the game total in half of its matchups.
There are plenty of injuries on the Trail Blazers’ side as well. Deni Avdija, Scoot Henderson, Kris Murray, Matisse Thybulle, Blake Wesley, and Damian Lillard all will miss tonight. Jerami Grant and Jrue Holiday are listed as probable.
Shaedon Sharpe headlines the production of the available players. The 22-year-old is averaging 21.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 2.7 assists per game. Jerami Grant has quietly had a strong season, contributing 19.8 points and four boards a night. Donovan Clingan adds 10.9 points with a team-high 10.7 rebounds and 1.3 blocks. Jrue Holiday also chips in 15.5 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 7.3 assists. Toumani Camara and Caleb Love are also averaging in double figures.
The Trail Blazers are averaging 115.9 points per game, which ranks 18th in the NBA. Portland also ranks 23rd in offensive rating, 28th in field goal percentage, 29th in three-point percentage, and eighth in pace. Defensively, opponents are scoring 118.4 points per game against the Blazers, which ranks 24th in the league. They rank 17th in defensive rating, 19th in opponent field goal percentage, and ninth in opponent three-point percentage.
Lakers vs. Trail Blazers Prediction, Best Bet
The Lakers got off to a strong start to the season but have come back down to earth lately. Their defensive issues should not be a surprise based on the personnel, but they’ve weighed them down in a major way of late.
In contrast, the Trail Blazers have largely exceeded expectations for the season. They have started to establish a foundation as a defensive-minded team and have seen some encouraging development from several of their young players.
But tonight’s matchup is a bit of a battle of attrition with both teams dealing with significant injuries. Rather than back a side in what should largely be a toss-up game, I am backing the matchup’s under of 223.5 points.
Portland plays at a high pace, but its defensive metrics are relatively solid. It should look especially dominant against a Lakers offense without the NBA’s leading scorer, Luka Doncic. It is easier said than done to replace the 33.6 points per game that Doncic provides. Outside of LeBron James, no active player averages more than 13.9 points per game — let alone offering much shot creation.
The Blazers, meanwhile, have struggled to score, even at full strength. Their offense should decline further without do-it-all forward Deni Avdija, who averages 26.5 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 6.9 assists per game. So much of Portland’s offense revolves around him getting downhill and creating for others, and this calculus shifts drastically without him on the floor.
Expect some sloppy basketball from both sides and for points to be scarce. The 223.5 game total is simply too high, given on the context of the matchup.
