Tipping off at 8 p.m. ET, the San Antonio Spurs will host the Minnesota Timberwolves at Frost Bank Center.
This will mark the third and final matchup of the season between the Western Conference rivals. Minnesota produced a 125-112 win back on November 30th. They then squared off on Sunday, with the Timberwolves edging out a narrow 104-103 victory behind a game-winning runner from Anthony Edwards.
The Spurs enter as 3.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Timberwolves sit as +145 underdogs. The game total is set at 232.5 points.
Let’s dive into a preview and prediction for Saturday night’s matchup.
Timberwolves vs. Spurs prediction, preview
The Timberwolves are off to a 27-15 start to the season and sit at fourth place in the Western Conference. Despite coming off back-to-back Conference Finals exits and having one of the clear top players in the league, they largely fly under the radar in conversations about legitimate title contenders. They are looking to bounce back from last night’s loss to the Rockets, but have won six of their last eight games. The Wolves are 18-24 against the spread, and have fallen below the game total in 22 of 42 games.
Minnesota is averaging 120.4 points per game, the fourth-best rate in the NBA. They rank sixth in offensive rating and fourth in both field-goal percentage and three-point efficiency. On the other end, the Wolves rank eighth in defensive rating, sixth in opponent field-goal percentage, and fourth in opponent three-point attempts.
Anthony Edwards continues to evolve into one of the NBA’s top players. The former first overall pick is battling an infection in his foot, but will be available tonight. He is averaging 28.9 points, five rebounds, and 3.8 assists, while shooting 40.9% from beyond the arc.
Julius Randle adds 22.6 points, seven rebounds, and 5.6 assists. Jaden McDaniels has taken an encouraging stride forward this season by adding 14.8 points and 4.5 rebounds a night, while shooting 41.4% from the perimeter. Donte DiVincenzo, Naz Reid, and Mike Conley also play a key role in the rotation. Rudy Gobert is listed as questionable for the matchup with a hip injury, while Terrence Shannon Jr. remains sidelined.
The Spurs enter with a 28-13 record, good for second place in the West. After a brief rebuild, the organization has clearly turned the page into a win-now mode and will be looking to make some postseason noise this year. San Antonio has the rest advantage, with its previous game being played on Thursday, a victory over the Bucks. The Spurs are 22-18-2 against the spread this season and have fallen below the game total in 25 of 42 games.
San Antonio ranks ninth in the league in scoring, producing 117.6 points per game. They also rank 10th in offensive rating, 13th in field goal percentage, 22nd in three-point percentage, and second in rebounding. Defensively, they are holding opponents to the seventh-fewest points per game (112.5). The Spurs also rank third in defensive rating, fifth in opponent field goal percentage, and 16th in opponent three-point efficiency.
Victor Wembanyama headlines the production for the Spurs, averaging 23.9 points, 10.9 rebounds, and 2.7 blocks per game. After being traded to the organization last year, De’Aaron Fox has fully found his footing and adds 20.4 points and 5.8 assists per contest. Keldon Johnson, Julian Champagnie, Harrison Barnes, and Dylan Harper also play notable roles in the rotation. Stephon Castle is listed as questionable for tonight with an illness, while Devin Vassell will remain sidelined with an adductor injury.
Timberwolves vs. Spurs pick, best bet
It took a go-ahead three-foot shot from Anthony Edwards with 16.8 seconds remaining for Minnesota to land a victory in the previous matchup between these teams. Despite Victor Wembanyama, Luke Kornet, and De’Aaron Fox each getting an attempt at the go-ahead basket afterwards, the Spurs fell 104-103.
The opening two matchups between these two teams took place in Minnesota, and these teams will now square off in San Antonio for the first time on Saturday night. The Spurs will have the rest advantage after the Timberwolves suffered a grueling loss at the hands of the Rockets last night. Minnesota is 5-9 against the spread when having the rest disadvantage this year.
While it could be viewed positively that Edwards did not play last night from a rest perspective, his foot infection has now flared up for the second time this season. The issue is not limiting from an ability standpoint, but still an annoyance that is proving bothersome to the star. Rudy Gobert remains listed as questionable, and his potential absence looms large — especially given the matchup with Victor Wembanyama.
The Spurs are 11-7-1 against the spread at home this season, with the sixth-best point differential at +7.2. While both squads deserve to be mentioned among the best of the West, expect San Antonio to capitalize against an exhausted Wolves team.
With a rest advantage, the home crowd behind them, and the Spurs playing some high-level basketball of late, look for them to get the job done on Saturday night. The 3.5-point spread is not large enough to blink at.
