Here we arrive at the 2025 regular season finale. An AFC North referendum. A battle for the whole division. And it’s just loaded with stakes. Baltimore still has a playoff spot to win, and the division stakes pull every fourth-quarter lever. Henry’s birthday angle lands because the Ravens’ identity is still him, especially after the New England fourth-quarter erasure and the Green Bay takeover we all watched with jaws agape. And the Harbaugh job-security noise matters, because uncertainty weeks tend to sharpen aggression, not soften it. In Pittsburgh, with cold air and a tight total, this game should feel like steel-toe football from the opening drive. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 18’s game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Steelers vs. Ravens prediction, preview
The efficiency story stays tight, but the injury shape tilts it and the player-level math explains why. Season-long, both teams sit at +0.008 net EPA/play, and neither side owns a real resume gap. Over the last five, Pittsburgh rises to +0.135 net EPA/play and Baltimore sits at +0.132, so this comes down to how each team accesses its best version when the game gets heavy.
Baltimore’s best version lives in the run, and it has arrived lately through Derrick Henry (RB) carrying 100 times for 598 yards and seven touchdowns with +0.229 EPA/rush, plus a 12.0% explosive run rate and 3.92 yards after contact per attempt. Keaton Mitchell (RB) keeps the edge sharp as the change-up, with 34 carries for 205 yards, 4.21 yards after contact per attempt, and a 17.6% explosive run rate that punishes tired fits.
Lamar Jackson (QB) is still the cheat code in the ground game, because his rushing plays have been the most valuable snaps in the matchup at +0.512 EPA/rush with a 17.6% explosive rate, and that’s how Baltimore can win without living in a clean dropback rhythm. The passing picture stays more fragile, because Lamar’s last-six passing line is 89 attempts with three touchdowns and three interceptions and -0.003 EPA/attempt, and the protection environment stays hostile with Baltimore allowing pressure at a 43.4% rate over the last six. That’s why Baltimore’s receiving efficiency has come from selective winners, not volume comfort.
Zay Flowers (WR) leads the target tree with 35 targets for 312 yards and two touchdowns at +0.159 EPA/target and a 20.0% explosive rate, and DeAndre Hopkins (WR) has been the sharpest per-target finisher at +0.373 EPA/target with a 27.3% explosive rate on smaller volume. Isaiah Likely (TE) has quietly been the efficiency stabilizer at +0.347 EPA/target on 15 targets, and that’s the middle-of-field antidote when the outside is noisy. Mark Andrews (TE) is still involved at 21 targets, but the recent efficiency has been negative at -0.235 EPA/target, which matters if Baltimore needs chain movers instead of splash.
Pittsburgh’s best version usually needs a perimeter hammer, and DK Metcalf (WR) being out removes that lever entirely. Metcalf has been their true separator lately, sitting at +0.626 EPA/target on 29 targets with a 20.7% explosive rate, and that is the exact profile that turns tight windows into quick points. Without him, the Steelers have to win with spacing by committee, because the remaining production lives in the short and middle game. Aaron Rodgers (QB) has kept them afloat with volume and ball security, throwing 162 passes over the last six for 1,059 yards with four touchdowns and zero interceptions at +0.169 EPA/attempt, and that steadiness matters in a low-total street fight. The problem is the shape of his efficiency, because his season-long blitz EPA sits at -0.196, so the offense needs answers that beat pressure with design.
Those answers exist in the underneath roles. Kenneth Gainwell (RB) has functioned like a slot outlet with 28 targets and 23 catches for 188 yards at +0.322 EPA/target, and his 0.8 aDOT tells the story of quick separators and easy completions. Pat Freiermuth (TE) gives Rodgers a real middle target with +0.348 EPA/target on 17 targets, and he has produced chunk plays too with a 23.5% explosive rate. Jaylen Warren (RB) adds the most violent after-catch layer in the backfield, catching 10 balls for 81 yards with +0.186 EPA/target and a massive 11.0 yards after the catch per reception, which turns checkdowns into drive fuel.
On the ground, Warren has been efficient enough at 56 carries for 288 yards with +0.060 EPA/rush and a 14.3% explosive run rate, while Gainwell’s rushing efficiency has lagged at -0.088 EPA/rush. That split matters tonight, because Pittsburgh’s best rushing snaps come from Warren’s burst, not from a true bruiser identity. The trench picture also shapes the ceiling. Pittsburgh’s line has protected cleanly all year, allowing pressure at 26.3% season-long and 25.6% over the last six with a 4.7% sack rate allowed, and Rodgers has helped by getting the ball out fast at a 2.44-second time to throw lately. Baltimore’s line has lived in the opposite universe, allowing pressure at 41.9% season-long and 43.4% recently, and that’s why Baltimore keeps leaning on the run to stay on schedule.
Baltimore’s defense still holds the cleaner early-down profile, sitting at -0.049 EPA/play on early-down defense, and that matters when the total is 41.5 and every third down feels like a referendum. Pittsburgh’s early-down defense sits closer to neutral at +0.004 EPA/play, and that opens the door for Baltimore to win first down with Henry and keep the whole call sheet available. Baltimore also wins the short-yardage muscle lately, converting 84.0% compared to Pittsburgh’s 65.6%, and those inches decide who finishes drives and who settles.
Ravens vs. Steelers pick, best bet
The Pittsburgh case still has teeth, even without Metcalf. The Steelers’ protection stays sturdy, allowing pressure at 25.6% with a 4.7% sack rate over the last six, and that gives Rodgers a stable platform. Pittsburgh also avoids drive-killing mistakes, sitting at a 6.1% sack-plus-interception rate over the last six, while Baltimore sits at 10.6%. If Pittsburgh can force Lamar into coverage pictures he hates, the door opens. Over the last six, Lamar sits at -0.254 EPA/dropback versus Cover 2 and -0.553 versus Cover 0, and Pittsburgh can build a plan around that discomfort. I still fade the Steelers side because the missing receiver changes the third-down math and shrinks the explosive ceiling. Pittsburgh’s explosive pass rate sits at 7.1% over the last six, and the offense already leans run-light compared to Baltimore’s 206 rush attempts. Baltimore can play patient, compress the middle, and dare Pittsburgh to win outside without its best outside winner. When the game tightens, Henry gives Baltimore a closing gear that Pittsburgh can’t replicate.
Baltimore should lean into heavy run looks and condensed formations because Metcalf sits, and Pittsburgh can’t punish single coverage outside the same way. Baltimore should keep Henry as the front-door answer, because his 12.0% explosive run rate still flips field position without asking for perfect blocks. Pittsburgh should counter with a two-tight-end approach and quick rhythm, because Rodgers has lived in faster releases at 2.44 seconds time to throw over the last six. Pittsburgh should use Gainwell and Warren as extension passes, because both have lived in efficient targets and can turn short throws into hidden yardage. Defensively, Pittsburgh should show Lamar Cover 2 shells and selective pressure, because his last-six splits versus Cover 2 and Cover 0 sit in the red. Baltimore’s defense should stay disciplined on early downs and tackle cleanly, because Pittsburgh’s path without Metcalf needs long drives and red-zone perfection. If Baltimore keeps the fourth quarter in Henry’s hands, it should finally match the moment with the result.
My lean stays Ravens -3.5, and it comes from the way the game should break, not from a season-long gap that isn’t there. The board sits at -3.5 with a 41.5 total, and the number asks Baltimore to win by more than a field goal. Baltimore’s path to that margin looks sturdier because it can manufacture first downs on the ground and keep the clock on its side. Henry’s +0.229 EPA/rush plus Baltimore’s 5.36 yards per carry over the last six creates a chain-moving baseline, even if the passing game sputters. Baltimore’s early-down defense at -0.049 EPA/play should force Pittsburgh into longer third downs, and Pittsburgh’s recent red-zone touchdown rate has cratered to 10.9% over the last six. Hidden points nudge Baltimore too, because Baltimore hits field goals at 90.6% compared to Pittsburgh’s 83.3%, and that matters when drives stall in the fringe.
I’ll take Ravens -3.5, and I’ll call it 23–17 Baltimore, with the division and the home playoff spot riding on the final kneel.
Best bet: Ravens -3.5 (-110) at Steelers
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I’m taking the swing on Derrick Henry (RB) 2+ TDs at +380, and I’d still play it down to about +320. Henry has seven touchdowns on 100 carries over the last six with +0.229 EPA/rush and 3.92 yards after contact per attempt, and that’s not a fluky profile. Baltimore has leaned into the run at 206 rush attempts over the last six, and the whole red-zone personality points to finishing through him. The situational tell matters too, because Baltimore’s short-yardage conversion has jumped to 84.0% lately, and those are Henry carries by design. This matchup also sets up for volume late, because Pittsburgh losing DK Metcalf (WR) shrinks the Steelers’ quick-strike comeback gear. If Baltimore plays from in front, the fourth quarter should look like body blows and goal-line trips, not cute sequencing. +380 is long, but the touch-down equity is real, and the path doesn’t require a passing spike.
Best prop lean: Derrick Henry 2+ TDs (+380)
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