The Mississippi State Bulldogs host the Wake Forest Demon Deacons on Friday, January 2 at 8:00 p.m. ET. Below, our simulation breaks down the latest odds, betting splits, key stats and the best ways to bet this matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Game Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook
Spread: Mississippi State -3 (-112) | Wake Forest +3 (-108)
Moneyline: Mississippi State -162 | Wake Forest +136
Total: 53.5 (-108 / -112)
Betting Splits for Mississippi State vs. Wake Forest
- Spread splits: 60% of bets / 47% of handle on Mississippi State -3
- Moneyline splits: 67% of bets / 56% of handle on Mississippi State -162
- Total splits: 47% of bets / 85% of handle on Over 53.5
The public is leaning toward Mississippi State on both the spread and Moneyline, but the biggest “sharp vs. public” signal shows up on the total: the Over 53.5 is taking a massive share of handle despite fewer tickets.
Stats
- Mississippi State ATS (2025): 8-4 (avg cover margin: 0.96)
- Wake Forest ATS (2025): 8-4 (avg cover margin: 4.75)
- First downs (2025): Mississippi State 261 | Wake Forest 224
- Offensive profile (PPA): Mississippi State 0.1616 | Wake Forest 0.1442
- Defensive profile (PPA allowed): Mississippi State 0.1944 | Wake Forest 0.0402
- Success rate (offense): Mississippi State 0.4241 | Wake Forest 0.3750
- Success rate allowed (defense): Mississippi State 0.4322 | Wake Forest 0.3536
- Points per opportunity (offense): Mississippi State 4.49 | Wake Forest 3.16
- Points per opportunity allowed (defense): Mississippi State 3.64 | Wake Forest 3.19
Key Stats to Know
- Mississippi State offense: More efficient on standard downs (standard downs success rate 0.4844) and creates points when it crosses scoring territory (4.49 points per opportunity).
- Wake Forest defense: Strong efficiency indicators overall (PPA allowed 0.0402) and a solid havoc rate (0.184), which can create drive-killing plays.
- Matchup swing factor: Mississippi State’s offense is more productive per opportunity than Wake Forest’s offense (4.49 vs. 3.16), which matters in a tight spread game.
How to Bet Mississippi State vs. Wake Forest
- Spread (public vs. handle): Mississippi State -3 has more bets (60%) than handle (47%), while Wake Forest +3 is attracting the larger share of money (53%). That can be a mild “bigger-bet” lean toward the underdog.
- Total (sharp signal): Over 53.5 is getting 85% of the handle with only 47% of tickets, suggesting respected money expects points.
- ATS context (2025): Both teams were profitable against the spread (each 8-4 ATS), so this matchup profiles as a fairly efficient market where number value matters more than team-name bias.
Players to Watch (Most-Bet Props)
- Robby Ashford – 230+ passing yards (+107): Tagged as one of the most-bet/balanced passing yard outcomes in the market, and it aligns with a game script where Wake Forest may need to keep pace.
- Robby Ashford – 220+ passing yards (-116): A more conservative ladder option that’s also shown as a balanced probability point for his passing production.
- Anthony Evans III – 27+ receiving yards (1st half) (-113): A key first-half receiving-yard threshold that’s priced near even money, indicating the market expects early involvement.
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Prediction & Best Bets
Projected final score: Mississippi State 30, Wake Forest 28
Moneyline: Mississippi State
Spread: Wake Forest +3
Total: Over 53.5
After reviewing the projections and models from our simulation, the DKN team believes this game sets up as a tight Mississippi State win where Wake Forest can stay within the number, while the market’s handle-heavy support for the Over 53.5 points to a more efficient scoring environment than the ticket count implies.