The Atlanta Falcons have long been eliminated from the NFC playoff picture, but they can still play spoiler in each of their final two weeks: if they win out, they could push the Los Angeles Rams down to the sixth seed and gift the Carolina Panthers the NFC South, even if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Panthers in Week 18.
Regardless, the Falcons have looked better since turning to Cousins at quarterback when Michael Penix Jr. suffered a season-ending ACL tear. Cousins has led the team to 24-plus points in four of his five starts after Penix’s injury, with the exception coming against an extremely strong Seattle Seahawks defense. He’ll hope to keep up his strong form at 8:15 p.m. ET tonight when Atlanta hosts the Rams on Monday Night Football.
The Falcons are seven-point underdogs for tonight’s matchup at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 48.5. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bets centered around Cousins.
Best Kirk Cousins Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Kirk Cousins O20.5 Completions (-128)
Cousins has recorded 21 or more completions in four of his six starts this season, including 30 in the win over the Buccaneers in Week 15 and 21 last weekend in a win over the Arizona Cardinals. He hasn’t been as accurate or efficient as in seasons past — his on-target percentage is the fourth-lowest of his career and he ranks 12th-to-last in completion percentage over expectation — but because this has also been his most conservative season by intended air yards per passing attempt, he shouldn’t have to do too much in order to complete 21 passes. It might just require dump-offs to Bijan Robinson, who had a team-leading 11 targets against the Cardinals and turned them into 92 yards and a score.
Compared to its performance in other major defensive categories, the fact that Los Angeles has allowed the 12th-most completions is an outlier. In part, that’s because opponents have attempted shorter passes while under pressure from the Rams’ elite pass rush, and in part, it’s because Los Angeles’ run defense is so fearsome. Cousins’ 40.3% completion percentage under pressure looks bad on the surface, but he’s gotten extremely unlucky that receivers have dropped a league-high 18.2% of his on-target passes in such situations. With some normalization, he’ll be closer to league-average on pressured throws, which should allow him to stack completions. Plus, with how good the Rams’ offense is, he’ll probably need to throw to keep his team in the game.
Kirk Cousins U0.5 Interceptions (+125)
One advantage of Cousins’ relative passivity this season is that he’s been more careful with the ball than in seasons past. His interception percentage is the fifth-lowest of his 14-year career, and he’s arguably gotten unlucky to have even thrown the four interceptions that he has, given that he’s registered only three turnover-worthy plays. Whether he’s pressured or not hardly matters: he ranks in the league’s top five in turnover-worthy play percentage while pressured and from a clean pocket. Plus, he likes to throw up the middle, and neither of Los Angeles’ starting safeties, Kameron Kinchens and Kam Curl, has had a pick since Week 11.
