The Ring Magazine’s next boxing event is titled “The Ring V: Night of the Samurai” and is headlined by an Undisputed Super Bantamweight Title bout between Naoya Inoue vs. Alan Picasso. “The Monster” has a perfect 31-0 record with 27 knockouts, while his opponent, Picasso, is 32-0-1 with 17 knockouts. This is Inoue’s sixth defense of the Undisputed Super Bantamweight title.
Here is my best bet for Naoya Inoue vs. Alan Picasso in an Undisputed Super Bantamweight Championship contest.
Naoya Inoue to Win In Rounds 7-12 (+150)
In his last fight, Inoue beat Murodjon Akhmadaliev by unanimous decison. That was Inoue’s first win by decision since 2019, breaking The Monster’s previous 11-fight knockout streak. Inoue is currently one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world, and this will be his 16th consecutive world title fight.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Inoue is a massive -4000 favorite as Picasso is the underdog at +1400. This fight has an over/under of 6.5 rounds, and both are -115. Inoue is -750 to win this bout by KO/TKO/DQ.
On CompuBox, among the best pound-for-pound boxers, Inoue lands the third-most jabs per round (6.6) and fourth-most punches per round (16.7), while allowing the second-fewest punches from opponents (6.9). Even though Inoue is coming off a win via the judges’ scorecards, it was a one-sided fight against Akhmadaliev as he won 118-110, 118-110, and 117-111.
Inoue’s combination of accuracy, power, and defense is unbelievable, making him unstoppable in the ring. Even though Inoue is usually a big favorite, he has faced adversity in the past. Inoue was dropped in the second round by Ramon Cardenas but bounced back and finished him.
In this contest, Picasso has the physical advantage, as he is taller (5’8″ vs. 5’5″) and has a larger standing reach (70″ vs. 67.5″). Picasso is powerful as well, as he has knocked out 10 of his previous 14 opponents. But Picasso didn’t have the best performance in his last bout as he beat Kyonosuke Kameda by majority decison.
Since five of Inoue’s last eight victories have come in the final six rounds, getting him at +150 to win in Rounds 7-12 is an excellent play. Picasso could be aggressive early, leaving Inoue a little passive to start the bout. Inoue does his best work after feeling out his opponent for a few rounds, making another late finish likely.
