Matchweek 16 was a wild one in the Premier League. Sunderland upset Newcastle in the first Premier League North East Derby since 2016, Manchester United and Bournemouth played out an epic 4-4 draw, and bottom-of-the-table Wolves nearly upset top-of-the-table Arsenal. More surprises are surely in store for Matchweek 17.
Some matches have no clear favorites, though, and there would be no surprises regardless of who wins. The opening match of the week, a 7:30 a.m. ET (12:30 p.m. local) Saturday clash between Chelsea and Newcastle at St. James’ Park, certainly qualifies as that.
The Blues are +150 favorites to win at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the Magpies are +175. There are +250 odds that the teams will draw.
Chelsea vs. Newcastle prediction, pick
Neither of these Champions League participants have been consistent domestically. Though Chelsea sits higher in the table, the Blues have had several head-scratching results — including a 3-1 loss to Leeds United in the Premier League and a 2-1 defeat to Atalanta in the Champions League — while beating Tottenham and Liverpool in the Premier League and Barcelona in the Champions League. Newcastle’s most impressive win was a 2-1 affair against Manchester City, but it, too, lost to Sunderland and Marseille. Despite the eight-place difference in the table, Chelsea has accumulated just six more points, so the standings undersell just how well-matched these teams are.
Still, despite the injuries that they’ve experienced, the Blues have displayed superior depth. Nominally, Chelsea’s best player is Cole Palmer, but he’s missed more than two months with injuries before finally returning to action earlier this month and scoring a goal against Everton last weekend. In his absence, the Blues have had a fairly egalitarian offensive load: though Pedro Neto leads the team with five goals and eight goal contributions, seven other players — João Pedro (seven), Enzo Fernández (five), Reece James (four), Moisés Caicedo (four), Malo Gusto (four), Trevoh Chalobah (three), and Alejandro Garnacho (three) — have each contributed to at least three goals. Robert Sánchez has also been strong in between the sticks, saving 70.5% of his shot opportunities (good for 10th in post-shot expected goal plus/minus). The back line also ranks second in tackle percentage on challenges and has allowed the third-fewest goals.
The Magpies still have arguably the more in-form attackers, between midfielder Bruno Guimarães and striker Nick Woltemade, who have scored a team-leading five goals each. Woltemade had a horror showing against the Black Cats, putting his lone shot off target, completing just two of his six passes, and scoring the game-losing own goal, but the 23-year-old has been sharp more often than not and should be due to bounce back. Plus, despite both of his shots against Sunderland being saved, Guimarães actually ranks fifth in the Premier League in goals minus expected goals. Still, while Newcastle’s attack can hold its own against Chelsea’s, the defense isn’t as sound: Nick Pope does rank fourth in save percentage and ninth in post-shot expected goal plus/minus, but the Magpies have been the league’s worst tackling team on challenges and have made the second-fewest tackles overall. As a result, Newcastle has conceded five more goals than the Blues have.
It’s easy to look at the Magpies’ result against Sunderland and Chelsea’s win against the surprising ninth-place side, Everton, and assume that the Blues will win, but as long as Palmer is active, that’s exactly what I’m going to do. Newcastle played a pretty solid defensive game against the Black Cats and still lost while looking completely lifeless in the attack, and Chelsea’s defense is stronger than Sunderland’s. The fundamentals all point in the visitors’ favor. Home field advantage should help the Magpies, but the Blues have had the league’s best goal difference away from home.
