Last season, the Portland Trail Blazers ended the season on a 23-18 run to finish 36-46, just four games behind the Sacramento Kings for the final Western Conference Play-In Tournament spot. The teams were widely expected to compete for that final spot again in 2025-26, and so far, the Trail Blazers — who sit 11th in the West at 10-16 — have held up their end of the bargain. Sacramento (6-20) has been far worse and has just +2000 odds of making another appearance in the Play-In Tournament.
Tonight, the two teams will finish off a 12-game slate of NBA action with a 10 p.m. ET clash in Portland. The Trail Blazers are mostly healthy, with every player who’s appeared in more than half of the team’s games set to suit up. The same can’t be said for the Kings, who will be without Zach LaVine and Domantas Sabonis, with Dennis Schröder questionable.
Portland is an 8.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-355 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 238.5. Sacramento is +280 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s clash and offer my prediction.
Sacramento Kings at Portland Trail Blazers preview, prediction
To a certain extent, the Trail Blazers have been disappointing, especially defensively. After ranking third in defensive rating during the second half of last season, Portland ranks just 23rd so far in 2025-26, and while the injury that has cost Jrue Holiday all but 12 games hasn’t helped, Toumani Camara has taken a step back on both sides of the ball. Plus, 2023 lottery pick Scoot Henderson still hasn’t suited up as he makes his way back from a hamstring strain, second-year center Donovan Clingan hasn’t developed much offensively, and 2025 first round pick Yang Hansen is still an extremely raw prospect. Deni Avdija (25.5 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 6.3 assists per game) has been just about the only bright spot, along with Clingan’s defense.
No matter how mediocre the Trail Blazers have been, though, little can compare to the Kings’ malaise. Supposed franchise player Domantas Sabonis was averaging just 17.2 points per game in 11 games before suffering a torn meniscus, and Keegan Murray — arguably Sacramento’s only promising young talent — has just a 48.3% effective field goal percentage. Plus, Schröder is shooting less than 40% from the field and hasn’t even recorded one steal per game. Russell Westbrook, signed late in the offseason, has arguably been the Kings’ best player, posting 13.8-6.8-7.3 averages and playing his most engaged defense in half a decade, and it’s hardly mattered.
Kings at Trail Blazers pick, best bet
If there’s any silver lining for Sacramento, it’s that the defense might be slightly less porous without LaVine. With the former Chicago Bulls man on the court, the Kings have conceded 124.0 points per 100 possessions, which would be the worst mark in basketball, but with him off the court, that mark improves to 117.3…merely the eighth-worst efficiency. Without LaVine, Sacramento’s offense takes a dive from the equivalent of the fourth-worst mark to the second-worst. Even Murray’s return hasn’t helped: he made his season debut 12 games ago and has had a positive impact of 8.5 points per 100 possessions, and in that span, the Kings have had the worst offense, the fifth-worst defense, and the second-worst net rating. They’ve also had the second-worst rebounding percentage and the worst true shooting percentage.
The Trail Blazers aren’t the worst opponent against whom Sacramento could try to get its offense back on track, but with Clingan back healthy after missing four games over the past three weeks because of leg issues, their defense should be better. In the 552 minutes that the big man has taken the court, Portland has been 2.9 points per 100 possessions better defensively, and more critically, it has gone from the equivalent of the third-worst rebounding percentage to the equivalent of the second-best. Clingan’s presence in the middle could make life extremely difficult for a Sacramento team that is already impotent on the boards and attempts the fifth-fewest shots in the restricted area. Though the Kings finish more accurately than the Trail Blazers, Portland allows the sixth-lowest percentage in the restricted area, and Sacramento allows the highest.
Neither of these teams can shoot. While the Kings have ranked last in true shooting percentage since Murray’s return — which won’t get any better now that LaVine, who leads all Sacramento non-bigs in effective field goal percentage, is absent — the Trail Blazers have been the league’s second-worst three-point shooting team. In Portland’s case, it’s more a function of luck than it is for the Kings, given that the Trail Blazers have generated the league’s second-most uncontested threes while converting those shots at the third-lowest clip, and Sacramento has produced the fewest wide-open looks. Both have allowed a nearly equal number of wide-open threes, but the Kings have benefited from more shooting luck, limiting opponents to the fifth-lowest percentage.
If Sacramento wants any chance of pulling off the upset, it’ll need to win the turnover battle by a large margin. Portland ranks in the top 10 in points off of turnovers, and while the Kings have turned the ball over at the seventh-lowest clip this season, that’s fallen to 12th after Murray’s return. They’ve also been sloppier with the ball without LaVine on the floor. The Trail Blazers, meanwhile, lead the league in turnovers, but Sacramento ranks 10th-to-last in points off of turnovers. In terms of discipline, the teams are exact opposites: Portland fouls a lot and draws a lot of contact, while the Kings don’t foul much or draw much contact.
Ultimately, in a battle between two truly poor and out-of-form teams, but the most consistent aspect of either team is a healthy Clingan’s rebounding and interior defense, and this current version of Sacramento’s roster with Murray and without Sabonis or LaVine is atrocious offensively. The Kings have scored more than 115 points in regulation just thrice in their last 16 games, and with Clingan, the Trail Blazers are just good enough to hold them under that number again.
