The Green Bay Packers’ chances at their first NFC North title since 2021 come down to this: a second showdown with the Chicago Bears, who currently lead the division by half a game in Chicago’s quest for its first crown since 2018. The teams previously met in Week 14, when Green Bay pulled out a 28-21 victory, in a game that was ultimately won by Josh Jacobs’ two-yard touchdown run with three and a half minutes remaining. However, the Packers might not have their hero for the rematch: Jacobs suffered a knee contusion in the Week 11 game against the New York Giants and has been listed on the injury report every week since, though he only missed one game with the injury. He didn’t practice on either Wednesday or Thursday, per Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur.
Ultimately, Jacobs should be expected to play, given that he’s suited up each of the past three weeks and been rather effective, totaling 54 touches, 275 yards, and three total touchdowns (50.5 total FPTS). While his workload has been slightly limited (18.0 carries per game from 68.0% of the team’s offensive snaps prior to his injury and 16.3 carries per game on 59.3% of its offensive snaps), he has looked strong and healthy, recording eight of his 21 broken tackles in Weeks 13 and 14 alone. The Packers’ offense begins and ends with him: he has more than twice as many scrimmage yards (1,160) as the next-most productive player, wideout Romeo Doubs (578).
If Jacobs doesn’t play, Green Bay isn’t completely toast, thanks to Emanuel Wilson. The 26-year-old carried a heavy load with Jacobs absent in the Packers’ Week 12 win over the Minnesota Vikings, amassing 107 yards and two touchdowns (29.5 FPTS) on 28 attempts, the most that any Green Bay back has taken in a single game this season. I wouldn’t expect Wilson to record quite as many carries on Sunday, since Jayden Reed has returned to strengthen Jordan Love’s receiving corps, but expecting him to take on Jacobs’ typical load and Chris Brooks to inherit roughly five carries in relief of Wilson is probably fair. The Packers should feel confident in Wilson, as he’s rated similarly to Jacobs by efficiency (3.73 vs. Jacobs’ 3.67) and rush yards over expectation per attempt (negative-0.21 vs. Jacobs’ 0.06) despite facing a stacked box nearly twice as frequently. He isn’t anywhere near the receiver that Jacobs is, but as a runner, he offers just enough.
The Bears are of a similar quality to the Vikings, so if Wilson was worthy of a start against Minnesota, he’s probably worth one against Chicago, too. In fact, the Bears’ biggest strength against running backs is the fact that they’ve allowed the sixth-fewest receiving yards to the position, which Wilson wasn’t likely to take advantage of regardless. Opponents have been ruthlessly efficient whenever they’ve taken to the ground against Chicago, gaining 5.0 yards per carry, and with former All-Pro corner Jaylon Johnson returning, throwing against the Bears’ secondary has become an increasingly less appealing option. Plus, temperatures are expected to be cold on Sunday, which could impede Love’s grip and make it more efficient to hand it off to a running back instead.
