UPDATE: Utah Jazz forward Lauri Markkanen (injury management) has been ruled tonight against the Los Angeles Lakers, per the team’s injury report.
On Tuesday night, the New York Knicks joined a prestigious group of three: teams to have won the Emirates NBA Cup. All three of those franchises will be in action tonight as part of the NBA’s featured 12-game slate in its return to regular action.
As the most westerly of the NBA Cup champions, the Los Angeles Lakers will play last, tipping off at 9 p.m. ET against the Utah Jazz at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City. The Lakers will be without two starters — Deandre Ayton and Austin Reaves — along with a key role player in Gabe Vincent, while Lauri Markkanen is questionable for the Jazz.
Los Angeles is a 7.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-298 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 243.5. Utah is +240 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s clash and offer my prediction.
Los Angeles Lakers at Utah Jazz preview, prediction
Though it’s too early for the Jazz to start lookin at lottery odds, they’re quickly approaching a precarious position: directionless mediocrity. After winning five of its last eight games, Utah is 10-15, good for merely the 10th-worst record in the NBA, and if its draft selection falls outside the top eight, it’ll be dealt to the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder. Whatever training Keyonte George did with Markkanen in the latter’s native Finland last summer clearly paid off, as 18 months later, George and Markkanen have combined for 50.3 points per game while making 35.2% of their three-pointers. With those two foundational stars in place, it almost doesn’t matter what the rest of Utah’s core looks like, though flashes from Ace Bailey and Isaiah Collier are a nice bonus.
Speaking of foundational stars, the Lakers wouldn’t be anywhere near a contender without Luka Dončić, who’s well on his way to his second scoring title despite converting at just a 32.4% clip from beyond the arc, the second-lowest of his career. Besides Dončić’s expected brilliance, LeBron James has picked it up in his 23rd season, recording at least 33 P/R/A in each of his last three games, and Rui Hachimura has at least been a lights-out three-point shooter, though he hasn’t contributed much else. It’s been a rough last six games for Los Angeles — three blowout losses and three narrow wins — but the next two games should be winnable.
Lakers at Jazz pick, best bet
The Lakers are not a deep team, and without Reaves, Dončić is the only reliably tough shot-maker on the floor at any given time. In the first game of Reaves’ absence, Los Angeles took a 20-point lead with just seven minutes, 48 seconds left against the Phoenix Suns after a 24-0 run…and somehow managed to fall behind with 12 seconds left before James sealed it with two free throws and and a block. Had Reaves been on the floor, the threes could’ve gone to him and not to James or Marcus Smart, neither of whom is as good a shooter.
All in all, the Lakers’ offense drops from the equivalent of the fourth-best to the equivalent of just its 10th-best with Reaves off the floor, as well as its defense from the 13th-worst to the second-worst (though that should not be taken as evidence that Reaves is anywhere near a decent individual defender). Vincent has even more extreme splits, as his on-court offensive rating would easily be the league’s best and his on-court defensive rating easily its worst. As for Ayton, Los Angeles has both defended and rebounded slightly better with him off the floor, though it has shot less efficiently.
Rim protection won’t be much of a factor in this game. This season, Los Angeles has allowed a 70.3% conversion rate in the restricted area, the second-worst mark in the league (and 0.2 percentage points higher than that which the Jazz have allowed), and it could be even worse tonight without Ayton, who’s limited opponents to the worst percentage within six feet of any Laker (and the fifth-worst of any player who’s played at least 20 games and guarded at least five such shots per game).
Los Angeles might be able to get away with it tonight because Utah attempts the third-fewest shots at the rim of any team, instead settling for floaters, which the Lakers have defended well. On offense, they’ll need to be aggressive with their drives, as they don’t get downhill much as is, and the Jazz have allowed the fewest shot attempts at the rim. Once there, both teams’ shots should go in: Los Angeles has been the league’s most accurate team from both the restricted area and from floater range, while Utah has been average at the rim and the second-best from the non-restricted paint.
The main differences will come on the glass and in transition. It’s a battle of strength versus strength on the boards, as the Lakers have allowed the second-fewest rebounds per game and the Jazz have snagged the fifth-most. Los Angeles has also allowed the eighth-fewest second-chance points, while Utah has scored the seventh-most. In transition, it’s mostly a battle of weakness versus weakness, as both teams allow a lot of points off of turnovers and on fast-breaks without scoring many themselves. The Lakers’ league-best free throw differential could be key, though the Jazz also draw lots of contact, and their free throw differential is respectable even though they foul at the third-highest rate.
Shooting luck should slightly benefit Los Angeles: it allows 4.6 fewer wide-open three-point attempts per game than Utah does, and opponents have canned such shots at a higher rate. The issue for the Lakers is that the Jazz have been better both at generating uncontested looks and knocking them down, and Reaves’ and Vincent’s absences won’t help, given that they’ve hit wide-open looks at the highest and fourth-highest rates on the team.
Home court advantage benefits Utah by 11.1 points per 100 possessions — the Jazz have a net rating 10.1 points per 100 possessions better at the Delta Center, while Los Angeles’ is 1.0 points per 100 possessions worse away from Staples Center — which could be exacerbated by some of the Lakers’ older players struggling with the altitude. The last time these teams faced off in Utah, Los Angeles won by two points, with Reaves, Ayton, and Vincent all active, and while I don’t feel comfortable enough to take the Jazz on the Moneyline — the Lakers won’t shoot quite so badly again — I’ll take them to cover the spread in what should be a high-scoring affair.
