Week 16 could dramatically shake up the NFC playoff picture, as three divisional matchups have massive implications on the division title races. One will take place on Thursday night, when the Los Angeles Rams take on the Seattle Seahawks with both teams tied atop the NFC West. One will happen on Saturday night, when the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears face off for control of the NFC North, which Chicago leads by half a game. On Sunday, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers, tied atop the NFC South, will also play.
Green Bay might be shorthanded for its pivotal clash, though. Wideout Christian Watson, who had missed the first six weeks of the season while recovering from the torn ACL that he suffered in Week 18 against the Bears last season, went down partway through the Packers’ Week 15 loss to the Denver Broncos with chest and shoulder injuries and didn’t return. He practiced Wednesday in a limited capacity and intends to play, so signs point towards him being listed as questionable for Sunday’s game.
Watson has emerged as Green Bay’s most reliable targets in recent weeks, already surpassing Matthew Golden and Dontayvion Wicks to become the team’s second-leading receiver despite playing three fewer games than Golden and four fewer than Wicks. He’s become one of the league’s most dangerous deep threats, accumulating a career-best 65.1% catch rate despite his average target coming 19.4 yards down the field, the second-deepest of any qualified receiver. Watson’s least productive game that he’s both started and finished was a 45-yard (6.5-FPT) performance in Week 10. Romeo Doubs, meanwhile, hasn’t recorded more than 45 yards since Week 11, and Wicks has only done it once. The X-factors are Golden — who had 233 yards across a four-week stretch early in the season, as well as 55 last week — and Reed, who’s missed most of the season with a collarbone injury but had five catches for 55 yards (10.5 FPTS) last week in his second game back.
Of all of the Packers’ receiving options, Golden is the most likely to replicate Watson’s role. He has the second-deepest average target on the team, and the vast majority of his production (249 of his 341 yards and 241 of his 354 snaps) came prior to Watson’s season debut. Each has been extremely effective on deep targets down the right sideline, with Watson hauling in three of seven targets for 120 yards and two scores (129.5 passer rating) and Golden pulling in two of his three targets for 61 yards (109.7 passer rating), and not-so-coincidentally, that has been Jordan Love’s best zone as a passer. Reed is probably a better player at this point in their respective careers — he led the team in receiving yards in both 2023 and 2024 — but he’s more of a slot receiver and Watson plays almost solely on the outside, so Watson’s injury doesn’t impact his role. Golden has lined up with almost equal frequency in both positions. Golden’s breakaway speed might make him an easier target than Watson, who’s produced the least separation of any qualified receiver.
Expectations for Golden should be muted relative to the more accomplished Watson’s, but he’s worth considering for this weekend. Chicago has been one of the most surprising teams this season, but that’s mostly because of running backs D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai. Defensively, the Bears haven’t been incredible, allowing the 11th-most FPTS per game to opposing wide receivers despite being targeted the ninth-fewest times. Chicago has a risk-reward defense: while it has forced the most takeaways, it has also allowed the fifth-most touchdowns, and it rewards accurate deep-ball passers like Love. Watson had a dominant performance in the teams’ previous matchup (four catches, 89 yards, two touchdowns, 24.9 FPTS), and Week 16 might provide an opportunity for Golden to break out.
