As the Green Bay Packers enter a pivotal stretch of the season — a Sunday matchup against the AFC-leading Denver Broncos and a possibly division-deciding Week 16 game against the Chicago Bears — they might have to do so without one of their leading men. Running back Josh Jacobs, who sustained a knee contusion in the Week 11 win over the New York Giants, missed the following week and, after two solid performances, is now listed on the injury report once again with the issue. He didn’t practice Wednesday, and according to head coach Matt LaFleur, likely won’t practice Thursday either.
Jacobs would be a huge loss for the Packers in a game in which they are already favored by just 2.5 points at DraftKings Sportsbook. The 27-year-old has nearly twice as many scrimmage yards (1,068) as Romeo Doubs (542), and his 12 rushing touchdowns trail only Jonathan Taylor and Jahmyr Gibbs league-wide. He hasn’t been incredibly efficient this season, as his 4.0 yards per attempt rank below the league average, but he’s topped that number in each of his past three games. Jacobs ranks fourth by Pro Football Focus’ running back grades.
Green Bay has one saving grace if Jacobs is unable to go: Emanuel Wilson. Jacobs’ backup has seen action only sporadically this season, taking just 88 carries, but when he sat out the Week 12 win over the Minnesota Vikings, Wilson carried his load and then some, turning 28 attempts into 107 yards and two touchdowns (29.5 FPTS). By NFL Next Gen Stats’ metrics, the two running backs have been pretty similar this season: Jacobs out-paces Wilson slightly in efficiency (3.76 to 3.72) and yards over expectation per carry (negative-0.03 to negative-0.09), but Wilson has faced a stacked box more frequently than Jacobs and has spent less time behind the line of scrimmage. Wilson provides less as a receiver than Jacobs does, but with only one drop on 34 career targets, at least he won’t do any harm in that respect.
Regardless, I wouldn’t consider him a must-start, given how strong the Broncos have been defensively. This season, Denver has given up the second-fewest FPTS per game to opposing running backs, allowing the fifth-fewest rushing yards and eighth-fewest rushing yards on the fewest yards per attempt. The Broncos also rank fourth by expected points added on rushing plays and sixth by PFF’s rush defense grades. To be fair, Denver has also had among the league’s best pass defenses, but with the Packers’ receiving corps getting healthier, they probably stand a better chance through the air than on the ground.
