The Week 15 NFL slate will kick off on Thursday Night Football in an NFC South matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Atlanta has dropped to 4-9 on the season and has lost seven of their last eight games. They also fell to the Bucs in the season opener. Michael Penix Jr. suffered a season-ending knee injury, and the keys to the offense have been turned over to Kirk Cousins once again.
Tampa Bay also has seen its season take a turn for the worse, but holds a better outlook in comparison. They hold a 7-6 record, tied with the Carolina Panthers for the top spot in the division. After Baker Mayfield looked like an MVP candidate through the opening few games, he has come down to earth, and his teammates have followed suit. The Buccaneers have lost four of the past five games and will look to get back on track and take control of the divisional race.
Looking at the odds, the Buccaneers enter as 4.5-point favorites with -238 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Falcons hold +195 odds of pulling off the outright upset, with the game total set at 44.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action outside of backing a side or total. Here’s a look at the top player prop bets for TNF in Week 15.
Falcons at Buccaneers Best Prop Bets
Bijan Robinson Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The outlook for the season has slipped away, but Bijan Robinson has played himself onto the shortlist of the most talented offensive players in football this season. The Texas product has tallied 1,081 rushing yards, 602 receiving yards, and seven total touchdowns. His 1,683 scrimmage yards lead the NFL.
Robinson plays a role in both the rushing and passing attack, and this will remain the case as they attempt to make Cousins more comfortable. The Pro Bowl running back ranks third on the Falcons in receiving yards already, piling on 46.3 yards per game. Drake London has been ruled out for this matchup as their leading pass catcher to further improve the outlook of his involvement, and Tampa Bay has been vulnerable to running backs through the air this year.
The Buccaneers are allowing an average of 53.9 receiving yards to opposing running backs this season, which is the worst rate in the league. Robinson played a role in this, coralling six receptions for 100 yards and a touchdown in the season-opener. James Cook had 66 receiving yards against Tampa, Jahmyr Gibbs went off for 82, and Christian McCaffrey picked up 57, just to name a few.
Robinson is arguably the top pass-catching running back in the NFL. He has tallied over 37.5 receiving yards in eight of 13 games this year. Count on the Falcons to return to the well, and for Robinson to dice up the Buccaneers through the air once again as he cruises past this receiving total.
Kirk Cousins Over 217.5 Passing Yards (-111)
There was a time when 217.5 passing yards was the floor of production for Kirk Cousins. Now 37 years old, Cousins will be making his fifth start of the season and taking snaps under center for the fourth straight week. It has been a mixed bag of results thus far. Across the four starts he has made, Cousins is averaging 192 passing yards per game. He has thrown for over 217.5 passing yards just once, when he hurled for 234 yards against the Jets in Week 13.
Luckily for Cousins, the Buccaneers have been vulnerable defensively and provide a great chance for the veteran to put forth an impressive performance. They are 27th in passing yards conceded and rank 26th in net yards per pass attempt. Michael Penix Jr. threw for 298 passing yards during the opening week matchup, and the Buccaneers have allowed over 217.5 passing yards in nine of the 13 games this season.
Cousins has attempted 30+ pass attempts in back-to-back weeks and three of his four starts overall. Drake London’s absence is a hit to the offense, but Robinson, Kyle Pitts, and Darnell Mooney are each capable of making plays. With Tampa Bay struggling to get stops, look for him to push his passing total to over 217.5 yards for the second time this year. Cousins is still playing with something to prove with two non-guaranteed years remaining on his contract. If the Colts believe 44-year-old Phillip Rivers still has something left in the tank, you better believe Cousins can produce at 37.
Bucky Irving Anytime Touchdown (+125)
While a lot has gone wrong for the Buccaneers in recent weeks, Bucky Irving has been one of the biggest bright spots on the season. Injuries have limited his full impact, but he has looked like one of the brighter young stars when he has been on the field. Across his six games played, Irving has tallied 353 rushing yards, 239 receiving yards, and four total touchdowns. He has scored in four of his six games played, including back-to-back weeks since he returned from injury.
Atlanta has not been flawless defensively, either. They invested heavily in improving their pass-rush last offseason, but are 20th in points allowed and 14th in total yards given up this season. The Falcons rank 10th in rushing touchdowns allowed and 19th in passing touchdowns conceded.
Irving will make an impact in both of these categories, with Mayfield leaning on him out of the backfield at a regular rate. Three of his four touchdowns have come through the air this season, including last week.
Tampa Bay has played coy by not naming him the clear top running back. But Irving has tallied at least 17 touches in every game this season and is a step above the other options in the backfield, skill-wise. With injuries taking a toll on the Tampa Bay roster as well, count on them to deploy Irving as their most dynamic scoring option and capitalize on the +125 odds for him reaching the end zone for the third-straight week since returning to the field.
