Week 15 of the NFL season has arrived, and with it come the fantasy football playoffs. After playing for a postseason berth all year, the stakes don’t ever get higher for the teams lucky enough to make it into the bracket. With each start or sit decision potentially the difference between hoisting a trophy and suffering a crushing defeat, being informed is key heading into this crucial stretch.
The Chicago Bears have one of the NFL’s best rushing attacks led by D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai, but with the workload distribution between the running backs shifting in recent weeks, are either still worth starting in the fantasy playoffs? Here, we’ll take a look at the Bears’ backfield to determine which player has the edge and whether you can trust them in your postseason lineups.
Evaluating the Bears’ backfield
In the first season under head coach Ben Johnson, Chicago’s offensive game plan mimics many of the principles the boss’ former Detroit Lions teams. The Bears rank first in the NFL with 31.2 rush attempts per game while averaging 152.6 rushing yards (second-best) and 4.9 YPC (sixth-best). The peripheral numbers are also elite with the Bears’ 0.07 EPA/rush good for third in the league while the franchise leads the NFL with a 48.8% rushing success rate. Clearly, the franchise’s offseason efforts to improve the offensive line have paid off, allowing the talent running behind the trenches to excel. Establishing the run is no longer just a goal but rather the No. 1 priority for Johnson’s offense — it’s worked out quite well with his team ranked fifth in total yards per game while averaging 25.7 points, good for the eighth-highest mark among all teams.
The casual fan may hear those numbers and assume Chicago has a true superstar talent in the backfield in the ilk of Jonathan Taylor or Christian McCaffrey. Such an assumption would prove incorrect, though the results are undoubtedly pushing the Bears’ two runners up in positional rankings.
D’Andre Swift entered the campaign as the incumbent starter and has performed quite admirably following a slow start. Across 12 games, the 26-year-old has racked up 837 rushing yards and five touchdowns via the ground on 173 attempts, good for 4.8 YPC. He’s also exceeded 1,000 scrimmage yards thanks to 28 receptions for 256 receiving yards and one additional score. For fantasy purposes, Swift is the overall RB16 in PPR formats with an average of 14.1 FPPG. He’s also seventh in success rate and 11th in EPA/rush among running backs to take at least 50 carries on the year. While still the more recognizable name in the backfield, Swift does see some stiff competition from a source that was largely unexpected coming into the year.
Seventh-round rookie Kyle Monangai didn’t enter the season as a real candidate to take over the backfield, though seizing the backup role did seem like a realistic goal. However, the Rutgers product put on a clinic with 176 rushing yards on 6.8 YPC when he saw the chance to start in Week 9 as Swift missed a game due to injury. Since that contest, the rookie has seen additional work and is up to 648 yards and five touchdowns on the season while averaging 4.8 YPC. Among halfbacks with at least 50 carries, Monangai also ranks fifth in success rate and sixth in EPA/rush. In fantasy, his numbers equate to 9.0 FPPG, though that mark sees an uptick to 13.5 FPPG since his role increased in Week 9.
So, what’s there to clean from those numbers? It appears the Bears have a true two-headed monster at running back, and unlike some timeshares like that of the Seattle Seahawks, it turns out both of these players are still relevant for fantasy purposes. Since Swift rejoined the fold in his return from injury in Week 10, the rush attempts shake out slightly in his favor with 73 carries to Monangai’s 67. Over that span, each has handled at least 12 attempts on the ground in all but one game, providing a solid floor with additional upside for whichever has the hot hand. Swift does see more PPR appeal with 16 targets over that span to Monangai’s five, which provides a slight boost to his value in those formats. On the other hand though, Monangai has taken 14 red-zone carries, three more than his backfield partner.
While it would be nice for one of these two talents to emerge as a workhorse, the two-back system the Bears utilize clearly works. With that in mind, both maintain value in fantasy football, though matchups against the Cleveland Browns and Green Bay Packers weaken the outlook for Weeks 15 and 16. A date with a struggling San Francisco 49ers unit in Week 17 — the fantasy championship in most leagues — does look appealing though.
To focus on the here and now, this week’s game will prove difficult against the Browns’ standout run defense, but that unit isn’t impenetrable as demonstrated by Tony Pollard’s massive 161-yard, 28.1-point outing this past Sunday. Given the volume for both backs and the Bears’ emphasis on pounding the rock as well as potential positive game script if they play from ahead, Swift is an easy RB2 candidate while Monangai can slot into the FLEX spot in Week 15.
