On Thanksgiving, Detroit sports fans have a lot to be thankful for. Not only are the Tigers, Red Wings, and Pistons among the best teams in their respective sports, the Lions are in a playoff position and have arguably the best running back in the world, Jahmyr Gibbs.
Gibbs got his feast in a few days early, amassing 264 yards from scrimmage and three total touchdowns in the Lions’ overtime win last Sunday against the New York Giants. He’ll hope to come back for seconds on Thanksgiving afternoon, when Detroit hosts the Green Bay Packers at 1 p.m. ET.
The Lions are 2.5-point favorites for tonight’s marquee matchup at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 48.5. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bets centered around Sonic.
Best Jahmyr Gibbs Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Jahmyr Gibbs 5+ Receptions (+113)
Gibbs doesn’t receive quite as many carries as most other running backs of his quality — he ranks just 16th in the league in attempts despite being the most efficient back in football — in part because the Lions also have arguably the league’s best RB2 in David Montgomery. But what makes him so dangerous is his receiving ability: he ranks fourth among all running backs in receptions and has caught five or more passes in each of his last two games, including 10 in the win over the Giants. He trails only Christian McCaffrey in receiving grades by Pro Football Focus’ standards.
The Packers could incentivize Jared Goff to throw instead of handing it off. Green Bay has been one of the best teams against opposing running backs this season, allowing the 12th-fewest rushing yards per game and ranking 11th in expected points added on running plays. However, while the Packers have also allowed the ninth-fewest receiving yards to running backs, opposing backs have caught the eighth-most passes. Green Bay gets pressures at the 10th-highest rate, which should force Goff to dump it off to Gibbs. Plus, the Packers frequently operate in zone coverage, and Gibbs has been the league’s second-best receiving back against zone.
Jahmyr Gibbs U19.5 1Q Rushing Yards (-118)
Gibbs has tended to record most of his action early in the game, with Montgomery contributing a greater share later on. This season, he’s taken 53 carries in the first quarter — his most in any frame — but he’s been inefficient with them, turning them into only 4.0 yards per carry. If he’s only averaged 19.1 first-quarter rushing yards against a slate of opponents weaker on average than Green Bay, I’m not optimistic for his chances of recording 20 or more yards against the Packers, who have held opponents to the seventh-worst efficiency on the ground. Green Bay also more frequently chooses to receive the ball after winning the coin toss than the Lions and ranks fourth in first-quarter possession share after ranking first in that category last season. That could give Gibbs only one possession instead of two to rack up 20 yards.
