Toledo escaped Sacramento State 20–17 last week after its running backs did most of the hauling. CJ Miller rushed for 135 yards, Autavius Ison added 101, and quarterback John Alan Richter managed 60 passing yards on 17 attempts. The Rockets found enough offense to recover from a halftime deficit. Covering two touchdowns against UMass will require them to finish more of the drives that Miller and Ison begin. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Toledo Rockets and the UMass Minutemen.
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Toledo vs. UMass prediction, preview
Miller gives Toledo a convincing place to start. He has topped 100 rushing yards in three MAC games, including 196 against Ball State and 183 against Western Michigan. UMass has allowed 168.8 rushing yards per game in conference play. Toledo should be able to attack that part of the defense while Richter works through his recent passing trouble. The Rockets also changed their offensive-line combination before the Sacramento State game: Chaz Carwise moved from left guard to right guard, and Dylan Senda entered at left guard. Grant Zimmerly’s availability for tonight remains unconfirmed.
UMass has defended the pass more effectively, allowing a conference-low 107.68 opponent passing-efficiency rating in MAC play. Cornerback Isaiah Reed’s status deserves a close check; his coach described him as day-to-day over the weekend. Toledo tight end Sam Lee also missed the Sacramento State game, and I have yet to verify whether he’ll return.
William “Pop” Watson III gives the Minutemen a much livelier offense than the one that faced Miami and Buffalo while he was injured. He threw for 302 yards and ran for two touchdowns in last week’s 31–30 overtime win over Ball State. Toledo edge rusher Andrew Zock will test the protection around him: Zock has 7.5 sacks and 10.5 tackles for loss in five conference games. UMass has allowed only 1.33 sacks per game this season, so the Rockets have to turn pressure into finished plays.
UMass vs. Toledo pick, best bet
The Ball State game also left UMass with a defensive problem to solve. The Cardinals drove 75 yards for the late tying touchdown. Toledo can sustain similar possessions on the ground, but Richter needs to make enough throws to turn them into separation. That was the missing piece in our -25.5 loss last week.
I lean Toledo -14, with a 34–17 projection. Watson’s mobility and UMass’s pass defense give the Minutemen room to stay inside that number. The projected 51 points leave little cushion against the 51.5 total.
Best bet: Toledo -14 (-110)
Projected score: Toledo 34, UMass 17.
Best Bet: Toledo -14 (-110) vs. UMass
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