It’s been a miserable season for Michigan State, currently 0-7 in conference play. Going from Big Ten powerhouse to last-place squad is quite the fall for a prestigious Spartans program. MSU will attempt to turn things around on the road this weekend against Iowa. The Hawkeyes, at 6-4, should come out with some intensity on Senior Day at Kinnick Stadium.
Which of these conference rivals will come out victorious on Saturday? Below is my prediction and pick for College Football Week 13’s game between the Michigan State Spartans and the Iowa Hawkeyes.
Iowa enters this contest as 16.5-point favorites (-115) over Michigan State, with the over/under set at 42.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Hawkeyes are favored at -900 on the moneyline.
Michigan State vs. Iowa prediction, preview
As always, Iowa’s identity is built upon its defense. The team is allowing 261.2 yards per game to opponents, the Big Ten’s fourth-lowest mark. On the year, they’ve allowed just 15 total touchdowns. High-powered programs such as Indiana and Oregon have combined for just 38 total points. However, the Hawkeyes looked off during a 26-21 defeat last week vs. USC. The Trojans tallied 16 unanswered points in the second half.
Granted, Iowa’s deliberately paced offense lends itself to low-scoring affairs. Four different players on the roster have garnered at least 250 rushing yards. That includes quarterback Mark Gronowski, who has also accumulated a conference-leading 13 rushing touchdowns. With that being said, the dual-threat hasn’t done much through the air. Through ten games, he’s notched 1,216 passing yards, six touchdowns and five interceptions. No Hawkeyes have recorded more than 240 receiving yards this season.
Iowa’s methodical game plan means opponents need to take advantage when they possess the ball. However, Michigan State has averaged the fifth-fewest yards (335.8) and seventh-fewest points (24.0) per game on offense. To make matters worse, backup quarterback Aidan Chiles (foot) is unlikely to play this weekend. That would mean a third straight start for backup Alessio Milivojevic. Over his last two appearances, the freshman has thrown for 439 yards and one touchdown while failing to turn the ball over. That includes a brutal 23-20 overtime defeat vs. Minnesota on November 1st.
Neither of these two are lethal, or even above-average, on offense. However, unlike Iowa, the Spartans are inept on the other side of the ball as well. Beyond quarterback uncertainty, MSU has also struggled mightily on the ground. The team is averaging 3.7 yards per carry, the conference’s fourth-lowest mark. That’s not a recipe for success, especially with an unproven freshman under center.
Michigan State vs. Iowa pick, best bet
A 17-point margin might be ambitious for Iowa, given their offensive limitations. However, the Hawkeyes have delivered blowout wins vs. Minnesota and Wisconsin, the latter of which came on the road. Against an even worse Michigan State group, the sky is the limit. On Senior Day, expect a dominant showing from the home team.
