The LA Clippers entered the NBA season off the heels of a seven-game first-round defeat against the Denver Nuggets, the team that arguably came the closest to ultimately taking down the NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder, so it looked as if they would be a bona fide playoff team again in 2025-26.
They could still turn it around, but so far, they look far from that: losers of eight of their last 10 games, the Clippers are just 4-10, in 11th in the Western Conference behind the Utah Jazz, and Kawhi Leonard remains out with the right ankle sprain he suffered against the Miami Heat on November 3. He and Derrick Jones Jr. are LA’s most significant absences when it takes on the Orlando Magic — currently without Paolo Banchero due to a groin strain — at 7 p.m. ET in Central Florida.
The Magic are 5.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-218 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 218.5. The Clippers are +180 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s inter-conference battle of disappointments and offer my prediction.
LA Clippers at Orlando Magic preview, prediction
The most unfortunate aspect of Leonard’s injury for LA is that he was enjoying among the better individual seasons of his Hall of Fame career, averaging the fourth-highest effective field goal percentage, fifth-best three-point percentage, most steals, and seventh-best PER. His 24.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 2.5 steals per game helped keep the Clippers afloat, and James Harden’s 26.2 points, 6.3 boards, and 8.7 assists per game haven’t been enough to lead the team to wins without him, especially with Ivica Zubac getting off to a slow start. Bogdan Bogdanović, Nicolas Batum, and Chris Paul have all made fewer than 40% of their field goal tries this season, and Bradley Beal — who was playing the worst of all of them — was shut down for the season after undergoing hip surgery.
The pieces have been slow to coalesce for Orlando, too. After making a blockbuster trade for Desmond Bane in the offseason, he’s made just 31.5% of his three-pointers so far, and his scoring, playmaking, and rebounding numbers are all down relative to last season. The issue hasn’t just been Bane though: Banchero has made just 25.0% of his three-pointers, and Anthony Black has converted at only a 28.8% clip. Second-year pro Tristan da Silva has been a lone bright spot, hitting at a 40.8% clip from beyond the arc, but he doesn’t provide much as a rebounder or facilitator. Even after a recent hot stretch, the Magic are still just 10th in the East.
Clippers at Magic pick, best bet
Since losing Leonard, LA is just 1-7, with the only win being an overtime thriller against the even more dysfunctional Dallas Mavericks, and the defeats haven’t been particularly competitive. Across that span, the Clippers have had the 11th-worst offense and the fifth-worst defense, which is pretty surprising given that they had the fourth-best defensive rating prior to Leonard’s return from knee surgery last season. They’ve also recorded the third-fewest rebounds and second-fewest assists across that span, fouling the seventh-most times and forcing the fourth-fewest turnovers. It’s been a completely unmitigated disaster.
LA has tightened up on the interior after Leonard’s injury, holding opponents to the 13th-lowest field goal percentage at the rim after allowing the 10th-highest percentage up to that point, but allowing the fourth-highest percentage on above-the-break threes can’t have been part of the plan. In large part, that’s been luck — the Clippers have allowed the 12th-highest mark on wide-open threes and the second-highest mark on threes with the nearest defender between four and six feet away — and Orlando neither generates nor makes many uncontested triples, so they could get away with it tonight. However, in the three games without Banchero, the Magic have gotten downhill at a league-average rate and finished at the seventh-highest clip. They’ve gotten somewhat fortunate — Franz Wagner won’t continue to convert restricted-area shots at a 91.7% clip — but regardless, LA’s average rim protection won’t cut it.
The visitors will need to control the defensive glass and limit fast break opportunities. This season, Orlando has averaged the fourth-most second chance points per game while holding opponents to the third-fewest, and while it plays at the league’s ninth-slowest pace, it does rank fifth in fast break points per game. Without Leonard, the Clippers have allowed the sixth-most points off of turnovers, the fourth-most second chance points, and the fifth-most fast break points, and they’ve averaged the third-slowest speed, per the NBA’s tracking data. LA’s lack of speed has also meant it has gotten to the rim at the fourth-lowest rate and attempted the eighth-fewest wide-open threes, augmenting areas that are already among the Magic’s strengths. The Clippers haven’t been good enough at converting from the non-restricted paint to make up for it.
Ultimately, Orlando has tightened up defensively after a slow start, posting the seventh-lowest defensive rating in basketball across the last 10 games, a stretch in which they’ve gone 7-3. LA doesn’t have a clear edge against Orlando in any facet of the game on either side of the ball. The Leonard-less Clippers aren’t anywhere near the level of the Houston Rockets, and the Magic took them to overtime just two games ago without Banchero. Orlando should cover the spread tonight and improve to 6-3 at home.
