For as historically dominant as the Oklahoma City Thunder — who have a plus-15.5 net rating and are on pace to finish with a 77-5 record — have been, the Washington Wizards have been an even more extreme level of bad. This season, Washington has been outscored by 16.1 points per 100 possessions en route to a 1-12 start to the season.
The Wizards are almost guaranteed to make that 1-13 tonight when they travel to face the Minnesota Timberwolves, who have made the Western Conference Finals in each of the last two seasons. The game will tip off at 8 p.m. ET at the Target Center in Minneapolis.
The Timberwolves are 16.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-1350 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 238.5. Washington is +800 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down the inter-conference clash and offer my prediction.
Washington Wizards at Minnesota Timberwolves preview, prediction
To start with the positives for the Wizards, last season’s second overall pick Alex Sarr is looking like arguably the best player in the draft class. He’s averaged 18.3 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks per game this season while connecting on 56.4% of his twos and 35.0% of his threes. Three different Washington players — Sarr, CJ McCollum, and Kyshawn George — are averaging at least 16 points per game, with the 21-year-old George also knocking down 44.9% of his three-pointers as a six-foot-seven guard. Still, the Wizards are going to need more from Bub Carrington, Cam Whitmore, and Bilal Coulibaly.
Minnesota hasn’t generated too many storylines, but it quietly sits sixth in the West, exactly in the spot it finished the regular season in 2024-25. However, there have been a lot of positives: Julius Randle has had arguably the best season of his career and is one of just four players averaging at least 24 points, seven rebounds, and six assists per game. Jaden McDaniels, who won’t play tonight while dealing with a wrist injury, leads the league in three-point percentage, and Anthony Edwards has been as stellar as ever despite missing some time with a hamstring injury. In the middle, 33-year-old Rudy Gobert is still invaluable on defense. If there’s any cause for long-term concern, it’s the development of 2024 eighth overall pick Rob Dillingham, who has yet to cut into 38-year-old Mike Conley’s playing time.
Wizards at Timberwolves pick, best bet
The Timberwolves’ key will be keeping Randle and Gobert on the floor, because in the 285 minutes they’ve shared the floor together, Minnesota has throttled opponents by 20.8 points per 100 possessions, the best among any Timberwolves two-man combination to see the floor for at least 160 minutes. They’ve won Randle-Reid minutes by just 8.2 points per 100 possessions and Gobert-Reid minutes by 0.3 points per 100 possessions, and they’ve been 13.1 points per 100 possessions better with Reid off the floor. The former Sixth Man of the Year has started to round into form with two double-doubles in his last three games, but it’s still clear that he’s the junior partner in the front-court trio.
Minnesota’s reliance on the aging Frenchman to hold down the fort inside doesn’t bode well for the future of the franchise, but for now, he’s still an elite rim protector. Among the 44 players who have played at least 11 games and defend at least five shots per game within six feet, Gobert has held opponents to just 41.2% accuracy, 10 percentage points better than the next-best player. Gobert has the ninth-shortest odds to win his record fifth Defensive Player of the Year trophy, and Minnesota has had the fifth-best defensive rating since Edwards returned from his hamstring injury. The Timberwolves have allowed opponents to shoot the third-lowest percentage in the restricted area and allowed the sixth-fewest points in the paint, which could be an issue for a team that has both gotten downhill and finished at a league-average rate.
To be fair, Washington has had decent rim protection as well, holding opponents to the 10th-lowest field goal percentage in the restricted area, though Sarr hasn’t necessarily deterred opponents from trying. The issue is that the Wizards have done everything else poorly defensively: they’ve given up the most points, most rebounds, and second-most assists while forcing the second-fewest turnovers, coughing the ball up the second-most frequently, and getting blocked the second-most. They’ve also fouled at the second-highest rate while drawing the fewest fouls. Minnesota, which has been the league’s fifth-best finishing team, should be able to mitigate Washington’s strength inside, and it has been capable enough on the boards.
Both teams could stand to benefit some from shooting luck defensively, given that they’ve allowed the 10th- and 12th-highest shooting percentages on wide-open threes this season, but the Wizards have conceded the seventh-most uncontested looks while the Timberwolves have been league-average. Both teams are also bound to cool down offensively, as Washington’s 40.4% accuracy on uncontested treys represents a 4.8-percentage-point uptick relative to last season and Minnesota’s 42.5% mark is a 2.5-percentage-point jump. Regardless, the Timberwolves have ranked near the league average in producing such looks and the Wizards have ranked in the bottom third.
Minnesota has gotten off to hot starts recently. Over their last seven games, since Edwards returned from injury, the Timberwolves have outscored opponents by 27.1 points per 100 possessions in the first quarter, taking advantage before one of Gobert and Randle exits the floor. Meanwhile, Washington has started slowly, posting a negative-9.1 net rating in the first quarter across that span. There might be too much garbage time for me to feel comfortable betting on the overall spread, but betting on Minnesota to lead by at least five after 12 minutes seems fair.
