Entering the season, the Phoenix Suns were widely expected to be one of the worst teams in the NBA after dealing Kevin Durant to the Houston Rockets in the offseason, and maybe they’ll drop back into that position eventually, but if the season ended today, they’d make the Play-In Tournament.
Assuming that, in a hypothetical tournament, the Suns would lose to the Golden State Warriors and the Portland Trail Blazers would beat the Utah Jazz, tonight’s matchup between Phoenix and Portland, which begins at 11 p.m. ET at the Moda Center in Oregon, would be a potential Play-In preview.
The Trail Blazers are 2.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-142 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 236.5. The Suns are +120 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down the night’s final game and offer my prediction.
Phoenix Suns at Portland Trail Blazers preview, prediction
It hasn’t exactly been no Durant, no problem for Phoenix, but given that the centerpieces of that deal, Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks, have played a combined 10 games, the Suns have managed to adapt pretty well. Devin Booker has returned to his dominant scoring ways, averaging 28.4 points per game on decent efficiency, and eighth-year pro Grayson Allen has broken out by emulating his elite efficiency on much higher volume. Center Mark Williams, who Phoenix acquired on draft night, has played his role well as a dependable starting center with star flashes. The Suns lost to the red-hot Atlanta Hawks on Sunday night but had previously won seven of their last eight games, albeit against fairly weak competition.
Portland’s momentum is trending in the opposite direction. Though the Trail Blazers are 6-7 overall, they’ve lost four of their last five games, though each came on the road, and they’re the only team thus far to have defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder. After a hot finish to 2024-25, Deni Avdija has picked up right where he left off, averaging 26.0 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game, and Shaedon Sharpe has chipped in with 22.1 points per game as well, even though his shot hasn’t been falling. Portland needs more from Donovan Clingan and Toumani Camara, especially on defense — both players’ calling card.
Suns at Trail Blazers pick, best bet
The Trail Blazers could have some issues tonight defensively with Jrue Holiday doubtful with a calf injury. They didn’t have Holiday on Sunday night, when they lost in overtime to the Dallas Mavericks, and they gave up 118 points in regulation and another 20 in the five-minute overtime period. This season, they’ve been 5.7 points per 100 possessions worse with Holiday off the floor, with all of that difference coming on defense. With Scoot Henderson, Blake Wesley, and Damian Lillard all out with long-term injuries, Portland doesn’t have a backup point guard, and it started Avdija, Camara, Sharpe, Clingan, and Jerami Grant — a lineup that has been outscored by 17.2 points per 100 possessions in 19 minutes this season — on Sunday. It’ll presumably start the same lineup again tonight.
13 games into the season, it’s fair to say that the Trail Blazers probably aren’t quite as bad as the team that ranked 28th in defensive rating across the first 41 games of 2024-25 and probably not quite as good as the team that ranked third in that same stat across the final 41 games. Still, interim coach Tiago Splitter has had Portland doing some good things despite ranking just 21st in defensive rating: the Trail Blazers rank eighth in steals, sixth in points off of turnovers, and sixth in deflections, which could be a problem against a Phoenix team that has coughed up the ninth-most turnovers and the fourth-most points off of those giveaways. The Suns will also need to do a better job drawing fouls against an undisciplined team that has been whistled the third-most times.
Both of these teams are pretty strong on the glass: Phoenix has conceded the seventh-fewest rebounds per game and has allowed the 13th-fewest second-chance points. Having a healthy Williams battle on the glass against Clingan will be crucial, given that Portland’s second-year big leads the league in offensive rebounds and has helped his team score the sixth-most points in the paint and the fourth-most second chance points. The Suns have gotten luckier on the boards than the Trail Blazers have, getting more rebound chances and fewer contested boards, and they’ve also been weaker in rim protection. Phoenix’s lackluster rim protection could be a problem against a team that gets downhill at the second-highest rate, especially since the Suns have attempted the fewest layups on the other end. They’ll also have to continue to finish at an elite level on the chances they do get.
Though Portland has the edge in the paint, it will need to start knocking down its open shots at a higher rate than it has so far this season. The Trail Blazers have shot the fifth-lowest percentage on wide-open threes this season despite generating the most uncontested attempts, and even though they were also near the bottom of the league in that stat last season, Holiday and Camara should improve individually, given that Camara made 38.2% last season and Holiday 40.6%. Neither team has given up many unguarded looks, but Phoenix’s opponents have shot the ball better than Portland’s have, so the Suns would benefit more from shooting luck normalization. On the other end, they’ve shot almost as many wide-open looks as the Trail Blazers while connecting at a league-average rate, but they’ll be hard-pressed to do so without their best shooter, Allen, who’s canned 51.5% of his 5.2 wide-open triples per game.
Given Portland’s advantage in the paint, shooting will be critical for Phoenix. Without Allen in the loss to Atlanta, it made just 10 threes, tied for its worst output of the season, and improvement towards the mean from Booker and Brooks won’t be a big enough swing. I’m also concerned that the Suns aren’t aggressive enough offensively to take advantage of the Trail Blazers’ indiscipline, and they foul too much themselves against a team that excels at the charity stripe. Phoenix also has been more than 20 points per 100 possessions worse on the road than at home so far. Give me Portland to cover the spread.
