After losing to Real Madrid in the first El Clasico of the season, Barcelona finds itself five points adrift of its rivals at the top of the La Liga table 11 matches into the season as it seeks its third La Liga title in four seasons.
With Los Blancos heavy favorites against Rayo Vallecano, the Blaugrana must win against Celta Vigo on Sunday to keep pace in the chase for Spanish glory. The match will begin at 3 p.m. ET (9 p.m. local) at Estadio de Balaídos on the Atlantic coast.
Barça is a -145 favorite to win and +340 to draw at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Os Celestes are +340 on the Moneyline.
Barcelona vs. Celta Vigo prediction, pick
The Blaugrana haven’t been nearly as dominant this season as they were in 2024-25. After a hot start, they’ve taken a 4-1 loss to Sevilla and a 2-1 loss to Real Madrid, and in both losses they produced worse chances than their opponent. At this point last season, they had 30 points through 11 matches, and the last time they had fewer points and went on to win the league was 2018-19.
Injuries have played a factor: Lamine Yamal has missed some time, and Raphinha has been out for the last six weeks with a hamstring strain and is expected to remain so through next week’s international break. Without the Brazilian, Barça has still scored a league-high 28 goals, but that’s a far worse per-game attack than it had last season, when it banged home 102 goals. It has also allowed the 10th-most goals after conceding the fourth-fewest last season, as Joan García has missed the last six weeks with a meniscus tear and Wojciech Szczęsny has been insufficient as a replacement. García has been back at training and could play tonight, but it’s more likely that Szczęsny and his 66.7% save percentage will remain between the sticks. Szczęsny saved only three of the six shots on target he faced in Barcelona’s disappointing 3-3 Champions League draw against Club Brugge on Wednesday.
Celta Vigo, meanwhile, is one of the hottest teams in Spain. The Galician side didn’t pick up its first win of the season until Matchweek 10, but it’s had several impressive results, including draws to Real Betis, Villarreal, Atlético Madrid, and Real Sociedad. Os Celestes then picked up back-to-back wins over Osasuna and Levante in the league and Nice and Dinamo Zagreb in the Europa League. Borja Iglesias leads the team with four goals, and Óscar Mingueza and Javier Rueda Garcia have each recorded a pair of assists. Romanian shot-stopper Ionuț Radu has been spectacular, tying for fourth in La Liga with 34 saves and ranking seventh in save percentage, and he has yet to concede more than two goals in any match. As long as Celta Vigo’s attack keeps humming — two or more goals in each of its last five games in all competitions — it should have a chance, especially with center back Eric García becoming the latest Barça player to suffer an injury.
Both of these teams have produced high-quality shots, producing the eighth- and 10th-most non-penalty expected goals per shot. Barcelona has produced far more shots, though, attempting 7.5 shots on target per 90 minutes, more than twice as many as Os Celestes have. Celta Vigo’s key will be aggressiveness; both teams have been extremely accurate passers, but Celta Vigo has actually completed the most through balls in the league, and Barcelona could struggle with Pau Cubarsí or Ronald Araújo, who are both more attack-oriented defenders, replacing García. Pedri’s injury will also hurt, given that the versatile playmaker been arguably the team’s best player this season. The Blaugrana will need to be tidy with the ball against a team that has been among the best tacklers in La Liga.
This game has banana-peel written all over it. Barcelona, which has been one of Spain’s best road teams this season, should have an edge over Os Celestes, who haven’t been dominant at home, but until Joan García, Eric García, Raphinha, and Pedri are back in the lineup, this team is a shell of itself. Given its current form and clean injury list, Vigo has a good chance of earning at least a point.
