The San Francisco Giants made it eight straight in dramatic fashion on Monday night, as Mike Yastrzemski’s three-run walk-off homer capped a stunning rally against the San Diego Padres. These two NL West contenders will be back at it again on Tuesday, with first pitch from Oracle Park set for 9:45 p.m. ET. Seth Lugo (3-3, 4.10 ERA) will make his return from the IL for the Padres, while Anthony DeSclafani (4-6, 4.31) goes for the Giants.
San Diego enters as the narrow -120 favorite on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with San Francisco at +100. The run total is set at 8.5.
Padres-Giants picks: Tuesday, June 20
Injury report
Padres
Out: RP Tom Cosgrove (hamstring), RP Robert Suarez (elbow), RP Drew Pomeranz (elbow), 3B Eguy Rosario (ankle), C Luis Campusano (thumb)
Giants
Out: INF Wilmer Flores (foot), RP John Brebbia (lat), OF Mitch Haniger (forearm), OF Luis Gonzalez (back), OF Heliot Ramos (oblique), SP/RP Ross Stripling (back)
Starting pitchers
Seth Lugo vs. Anthony DeSclafani
Lugo will be making his first start since mid-May, when he suffered a calf strain after allowing five runs in just two innings against the Kansas City Royals. The former New York Mets swingman had been a sturdy member of the Padres rotation prior to that, though, with five quality starts in his first seven outings. The righty’s curve was an elite option out of the bullpen, but he’s struggled with it as a starter, with a .321 batting average allowed and a 24.8% whiff rate (down from 30.8% last year). When he’s on, though, he brings two solid breaking balls and the ability to eat innings.
DeSclafani has cooled off considerably after his great start to this season, with a 7.13 ERA over his last five outings dating back to May 24. He has just one quality start over that span and has been knocked out after just three innings twice. The righty’s slider remains very good, but he doesn’t have anything else to keep hitters from sitting on it, as both his four-seam fastball and sinker sit in the low 90s and are currently giving up expected slugging percentages of .494 and .601, respectively.
Over/Under pick
Five runs over the final two innings turned what was shaping up to be a 4-2 Padres win into a 7-5 Padres loss last night. While I’m not expecting those kind of fireworks again, I do think the over is the right play here: This San Diego lineup has been heating up of late and should do work against a struggling DeSclafani, while Lugo likely won’t be able to work too deep into this game in his first appearance in over a month. Each team should be more than capable of putting up a handful of runs tonight, which gets us to 9 pretty comfortably.
Pick: Over 8.5
Moneyline pick
The Giants’ magic has to run out at some point, and I’m betting it finally will on Tuesday night. DeSclafani hasn’t had many answers of late, while Lugo should at least be able to do enough to let San Diego’s bats carry them to a win.
Pick: Padres
