After a three-game losing streak, the New York Knicks got back to winning ways last night with a 128-116 win over the Chicago Bulls to exact revenge after Chicago had beaten them on Friday in the Emirates NBA Cup.
They’ll now embark on their first back-to-back of the season, as they’re set to suit up again tonight at Madison Square Garden for a 7:30 p.m. ET clash against the Washington Wizards. Unsurprisingly, center Mitchell Robinson won’t be available for New York as he continues to manage an ankle injury, and Josh Hart is listed as questionable. Khris Middleton is questionable for the Wizards.
The Knicks are 12.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-650 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 234.5. Washington has +470 odds of pulling off the upset. Below, I’ll break down the clash and offer my prediction.
Washington Wizards at New York Knicks preview, prediction
New York shouldn’t be overly concerned about its slow start to the season; after all, the Knicks were just 5-6 through 11 games in 2024-25 and ended up making it within two wins of the NBA Finals. That squad had far more roster turnover, so perhaps its early struggles were more justified, but in general, a team that expects to compete for a title deep into the spring doesn’t care about early season losses. What’s important is that New York’s key players stay healthy, which is why new head coach Mike Brown has been so conservative with Robinson. Injuries might also help explain Karl-Anthony Towns’ poor start, given that he’s been dealing with a quadriceps strain all season, but the fact that he’s off the injury report indicates that he’s inching back towards full health.
It’s hard to analyze too much about the Wizards’ 1-5 opening stretch, given that the team has no interest in being competitive this season and has one of the youngest rosters in the league. Washington kept it fairly tight in its first four games of the season, but it has dropped lopsided decisions against the Oklahoma City Thunder and, more disappointingly, the Orlando Magic. On the bright side, some of the Wizards’ youngsters, including last season’s second overall pick Alex Sarr and 2025 sixth overall pick Tre Johnson, have impressed so far. In Sarr, Johnson, and Kyshawn George, Washington finally has building blocks for the future.
Wizards at Knicks pick, best bet
For all of the promise that the Wizards’ first few games have shown, they’re still very, very bad. So far this season, Washington ranks third-to-last on both sides of the ball after finishing with the worst offense and third-worst defense in 2024-25, and its net rating is actually one point per 100 possessions worse than it was last season. The Wizards rank eighth on the glass after finishing 18th in rebounds per game in 2024-25, and they’ve done a slightly better job moving the ball, but their turnover differential is poor and they commit the third-most fouls while drawing the fewest. It’s a long road ahead for Washington.
The Wizards have shot the ball reasonably well, converting at the 21st-highest rate from the field and the ninth-best clip from beyond the arc after finishing 28th and 29th in those categories, respectively, last season. The same can’t be said for the Knicks, who rank third-to-last in field goal percentage and 13th in three-point percentage after ranking in the top eight last season. New York is attempting a lot more threes under Brown than it did under Tom Thibodeau, but those shots just haven’t been falling. For both teams, the shooting is partly a matter of luck; the Knicks are connecting at the league’s 10th-lowest clip on wide open triples, while Washington has shot the 10th-highest. New York has also allowed the second-highest three-point percentage, which can be attributed predominantly to the fact that it has allowed the third-highest percentage on wide open threes.
The Knicks’ paint struggles are surprising: they’re shooting the second-lowest percentage in the restricted area and the lowest from the non-restricted paint. Towns has been the main driver of that struggle; after making 66.9% of his shots at the rim last season, he’s converted at just a 47.4% clip so far, easily the lowest mark among the 30 players who have attempted at least five shots such shots per game. That’s likely an outlier driven both by his injury and a small sample size, given that he made at least two-thirds of his attempts at the rim in eight of his first 10 seasons. I’d expect some regression towards the mean, especially as he gets healthier. Plus, he should get plenty of volume inside, given that the Wizards have allowed the second-most rebounds and the seventh-most points in the paint.
It’s not the easiest matchup, given Washington has allowed the sixth-lowest percentage in the restricted area so far, but it was the league’s worst rim-protecting team in 2024-25. At least some of Sarr’s improvement as a rim protector is probably legitimate, but going from Josh Giddey’s quality last season to Ivica Zubac’s so far is a difficult leap to maintain, so some regression is likely there, too. The Wizards have also allowed the fifth-most assists per game, and the Knicks have attempted 30.8 more passes per game so far this season than they did in 2024-25. The heady Brunson, now equipped with a more ball movement-friendly offense, should be able to out-smart a young Washington defense in order to generate open shots.
The young Wizards have a lot of promise, but New York is just the better team, and with its strength on the glass and improved ball movement, it’s only a matter of time before its finishing improves. Shooting luck has also gone against the Knicks virtually all season, and that’s due for normalization at some point. I like New York to record its first proper blowout of the season.
