The first contest of tonight’s UFC Fight Night card features a 130-pound catchweight bout between Allan Nascimento and Cody Durden. Nascimento hails from the legendary Chute Boxe in Brazil and has won his last three fights in the UFC. Durden comes from American Top Team and has suffered two consecutive defeats.
Check out my best bet for Allan Nascimento vs. Rafael Estevam at this week’s UFC Fight Night.
Allan Nascimento to Win by Decision (+175)
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Nascimento is a -285 favorite with Durden being a +230 underdog in this fight. In this contest, Nascimento is one inch taller (5’8″ vs. 5’7″) while having a two-inch edge in reach (69″ vs. 67″).
Durden has lost four of his previous five bouts, with his last win coming in September 2024. He does average over four takedowns per 15 minutes, but only lands his attempts at a 47 percent rate. Nascimento must make this a striking battle to find success in this contest. On the feet, Nascimento only allows 1.96 significant strikes per minute while landing 60 percent of his own strikes.
Nascimento does have 16 finishes in his career, but four of his previous six bouts have gone the distance. Also, seven of his last 10 contests have been decided by the judges’ scorecards. With that said, getting Nascimento to win by decision at +175 is a good value play.
