The Timberwolves are hosting the Nuggets on Monday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Denver is favored by 6.5 points, with the game total set at 229.5 points.
Below, I break down this matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets preview, prediction
The Timberwolves improved to 2-1 with a win over the Pacers last night, but they unfortunately lost Anthony Edwards to a hamstring injury in the process, and the All-Star will be sidelined for two weeks, per ESPN’s Shams Charania.
With Edwards only available for three minutes last night, Julius Randle elevated his game and led Minnesota with 31 points. Additionally, Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid each posted double-doubles, and Donte DiVincenzo scored 17 points.
The Timberwolves were 1-2 without Edwards last season, but Randle wasn’t available for any of these games, and will now become Minnesota’s top offensive weapon. With Edwards off the floor the last two seasons, Randle is leading the Timberwolves with a 27% usage rate, and he is scoring 25 points per 36 minutes. DiVincenzo and Reid will also both be asked to do more as scorers with Edwards missing.
While Minnesota is 2-1 this season, it hasn’t been pretty, as the team has struggled on both sides of the ball and ranks 23rd in net rating. Things could get ugly for the Timberwolves with their superstar unavailable. When Edwards isn’t on the floor this season, his team owns a paltry -7.9 net rating.
On the other side of this matchup, the Nuggets head into Monday night’s contest completely healthy and well-rested, with their last game being a 22-point blowout over the Suns on Saturday. This victory came after the Nuggets dropped their season opener to the Warriors last Thursday in an overtime thriller in Golden State.
This Denver team ranks sixth in net rating this season, and its big three of Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Aaron Gordon all have been outstanding. Jokic has tallied a triple-double in each of the first two games, Murray has scored 20+ in both of these contests, and Gordon erupted for a career-high 50 points against the Warriors in the season opener.
The Timberwolves went 4-0 vs. the Nuggets last season, but Edwards was available for all these games, while Murray and Gordon each missed a contest. Combine Edwards’ absence with the fact that Minnesota is playing its second game in two nights on Monday, and the Timberwolves are at a massive disadvantage against Denver.
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets pick, best bet
With the Nuggets being healthier and more rested, they should absolutely win this matchup against the Timberwolves. However, Denver is only 11-14 ATS as an away favorite the last two seasons, so backing them to cover this 6.5-point spread does come with some risk.
Denver -6.5 points is a viable play, but backing the Nuggets to eclipse the total of 118.5 points makes more sense. The Nuggets are tied for the highest-rated offense in the league and should continue to flourish against a depleted Timberwolves squad.
