Fight day has arrived! The UFC 321 Main Card airs live at 2:00 p.m. ET as Tom Aspinall defends the Undisputed Heavyweight Championship against No. 1 Ciryl Gane in the Main Event. The Main Card features two title fights with three additional ranked matchups.
Here are my two favorite prop bets for today’s UFC 321 PPV.
Tom Aspinall Under 28.5 Significant Strikes (-115)
Seeing someone like Tom Aspinall have a total of only 28.5 significant strikes may seem too low. But it is because Aspinall doesn’t need many strikes to finish his opponents inside the Octagon. Aspinall has won his previous three fights via first-round knockout, recording 14, 10, and 13 significant strikes.
Aspinall suffered an injury 15 seconds into his first fight with Curtis Blaydes. Besides that bout, Aspinall has won eight fights in the UFC by finish in the first or second round. In Aspinall’s eight fights where he was healthy, he totaled under 28.5 significant strikes in six of them. You can get Aspinall’s under in significant strikes at -115 against Gane on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mario Bautista Over 46.5 Significant Strikes (-115)
Yes, Mario Bautista is facing Umar Nurmagomedov and is a +455 underdog. But Bautista is supremely talented and is coming off a dominant victory against Patchy Mix, where he totaled 173 significant strikes. Bautista has finished with more than 46.5 significant strikes in four consecutive contests.
In this fight, Bautista averages 1.75 more significant strikes per minute than Nurmagomedov. Bautista also has a 55 percent defensive rate on the feet, which should allow him to slow Nurmagomedov down. Pairing that with Bautista’s elite takedown defense has a good chance to equal success for Bautista in the striking department. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Bautista’s over in significant strikes is set at -115.
