This feels like a midweek game, aesthetically. Two teams with domes to which corporate audiences flock. This isn’t to shade the SoFi nor Skol faithful. There’s just something fitting about a Thursday Night Football game between two teams who handle their business in indoor bastions to modern architecture. A there’s-still-money-to-be-made sheen to the rooftops, as we all must return to the grind on Friday morning, just hours after the final whistle. Your Justin Herbert; your Carson Wentz—they look like they could hack it as business analysts and quarterbacks both. In any case, they’ll be helming both offenses for Week 8’s Thursday Night Football game between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Minnesota Vikings. In place of your usual pilot for this column, Jeff Pratt, I’ve got a few anytime TD bets I like for my weeknight slips.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Keenan Allen (+155)
Brian Flores will tilt the field with disguise and heat on a short week, and that’s precisely when Keenan Allen becomes Justin Herbert’s first read. Minnesota’s scheme is built to trap the middle and stress protection; the counter is rhythm throws and isolation outside. Expect the Chargers to lean into that chess match at SoFi.
The numbers pave a clean lane. When blitzed, Herbert has produced 66.7% completions and 8.1 YPA (five TD, two INT on 75 attempts); under general pressure he dips to 51.9% and 6.2 YPA (seven TDs, four INTs on 106 attempts). Allen is the pressure beater:
18 blitz targets → 12 receptions, 131 yards, two TDs
20 pressure targets → 10 receptions, 122 yards, three TDs
Minnesota’s defense has also been tagged outside when blitzing (75% completions, 252 yards, three TDs on 20 targets)—the exact window Allen attacks. For context, Herbert’s overall season line remains sturdy at ~68% and 7.1 YPA, so the blitz-specific efficiency isn’t a mirage.
Alignment and situation tighten the funnel. Slot WRs have only a 36.4% completion rate vs Minnesota’s blitz, which can compress Ladd McConkey’s slot efficiency in this look. Short-yardage and money downs tilt toward Allen anyway: on third-and-3 or fourth-and-2, he’s seven targets, four catches, 49 yards, 1 TD; on third down under pressure, eight targets, three catches. If the Vikings cloud the picture, Herbert’s progression still trends predictable: Allen first, then vertical stress with Quentin Johnston (15 blitz targets, nine for 168 and two TDs), Oronde Gadsden as the reliable valve (71.4% catch rate under pressure; TEs 80% vs blitz), and Omarion Hampton as the emergency outlet (87.5% under pressure; RBs 77.8% vs blitz).
The storylines lean his way, too. Allen reunited with the Chargers on a one-year deal in August, re-centering the passing game around his timing with Herbert. On a short week, with Joe Alt and Trey Pipkins managing injuries, the quick-answer tree favors the veteran separator—hot routes, option stems, boundary access against pressure. That’s exactly where these touchdowns live.
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T.J. Hockenson (+215)
T.J. Hockenson is the Vikings’ red-zone metronome, and Carson Wentz hears that beat. In tight turf, trust matters more than flourish. Hockenson supplies it: a 71.4% red-zone catch rate on seven looks and a 77.8% mark versus Cover-3. Zoom out to zone as a whole and he sharpens again at 78.3%. That profile fits Los Angeles’ zone DNA like a key in a melody.
Wentz has thrown five red-zone touchdowns without a pick on 32 attempts. The completion rate sits at 53.1%, which tells you he’s selective. He hunts certainty, not volume, and certainty wears No. 87. The Chargers invite that choice: opponents complete 48.6% in the red zone overall, yet tight ends have stung them at 75% with two scores. Those are seams and crossers begging to be punctured.
Chargers LB Daiyan Henley has yielded 100% of targets in red-zone primary coverage with a touchdown allowed. That’s the very corridor Hockenson bends through—sit, snap, and knife inside leverage. Wentz’s eyes will follow the leverage, then fire.
The alternatives carry dents. Jalen Nailor owns eight red-zone targets but just a 25% catch rate. Josh Oliver sits at 75% and Jordan Addison at 66.7%, both useful, neither matching Hockenson’s blend of volume and conversion. All three of these represent just fine long-shot tickets. I’m sticking-and-moving with these two, though.
Most-Bet Anytime TD Scorers for Chargers/Vikings on TNF
- Jordan Mason
- Justin Jefferson
- Jordan Addison
- Keenan Allen
- Ladd McConkey
