It’s finally here. The NBA returns to us on Tuesday night, and we’re getting the banner raising done out of the gate. The Oklahoma City Thunder will celebrate their first-ever championship on Tuesday, then have a date with the Houston Rockets. It’s a battle between the top two seeds in the Western Conference, and if that doesn’t get you fired up, I can’t help you.
The Thunder are 7.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. They’re priced at -325 on the moneyline, while the Rockets are +260 underdogs. The total for this game is set at 227.5 points. Let’s get into my preview, prediction and pick for this Rockets vs. Thunder game.
Rockets vs. Thunder prediction, preview
If you watched the Thunder last season on their march to the championship, you know what to expect from this year’s team. No single squad had more offseason continuity than Oklahoma City, who extended all of its star players and kept the exact same rotation going into this season. You’ll see physical defense, versatile lineups, and a whole lot of buckets from reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Houston underwent considerably more changes. After being a surprise 52-win team, then being ousted from the playoffs for the fifth time in 10 years by the Warriors, significant upgrades were in order. Houston’s headliner was trading for Kevin Durant, but they also shored up the rotation by adding Dorian Finney-Smith, Clint Capela, and Josh Okogie.
It was already going to be a large team, but the loss of Fred VanVleet to a torn ACL really puts their eggs in the “bigger than everyone” basket. Head coach Ime Udoka is leaning into that; Houston will start Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant, Jabari Smith Jr., Steven Adams, and Alperen Sengun on Tuesday. That’s four players at 6’11” or taller, plus a 6’7″ point guard. It’s sure interesting, at least.
The problem for Houston is that Oklahoma City loves to scale up in size. They can easily deploy two-big lineups with Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren. No Jalen Williams is a tough beat for the Thunder, but they have the depth to make up for it. Cason Wallace and Lu Dort both have great positional size at the SG and SF spots. Alex Caruso always plays above his weight. And SGA at 6’6″ can measure up to Amen Thompson.
Houston’s “oops, all forwards” team build has its merits, but it’s a tricky proposition against Oklahoma City.
Rockets vs. Thunder pick, best bet
This should be a compelling matchup, especially between the two defenses. How does Oklahoma City find space amongst all the trees? Can Houston generate consistent offense, or will they be too reliant on Kevin Durant? Ultimately, the Thunder have too many chess pieces at their disposal, while the Rockets will need to brute-force their play style past OKC. I’m counting on the defending champs to make this a good banner-raising night.
