All of a sudden, the American League Championship Series is back on. The Toronto Blue Jays looked dead in the water after Julio Rodríguez went deep on the third at-bat of the game to stake the Seattle Mariners to a 2-0 lead in Game 3 on top of their 2-0 series lead. But Toronto’s bats came alive to cut the deficit to 2-1. The Mariners are still favored — at DraftKings Sportsbook, they still have -255 odds to win the series — but it’s far from impossible for the Blue Jays to rally.
The pivotal Game 4 will start at 8:33 p.m. ET in Seattle. The Mariners will start Luis Castillo, while Toronto turns to veteran Max Scherzer.
There are plenty of bets that you can make on the game, but one of the most fun (and rewarding) ways is to build a same-game parlay. Here’s one that I like:
Mariners vs. Blue Jays Same Game Parlay
- Mariners ML
- Over 7.5
- Max Scherzer 5+ Strikeouts Thrown
Mariners ML
The Blue Jays’ convincing display yesterday had me questioning this one, but ultimately, Seattle is the better — or, at least, the hotter — team. Both teams’ offenses are capable of getting hot, with Toronto relying more on contact and the Mariners more on power. I just have fewer questions about Seattle’s pitching staff than I do about the Blue Jays’, especially since Toronto’s bullpen has pitched to a pitiful 6.32 ERA in 31.1 innings so far this postseason. Castillo has been in hotter form than Scherzer; over his last six outings, between the regular season and the playoffs, he’s pitched 31.1 innings and allowed just three runs, while Scherzer allowed four or more earned runs in five of his last six regular season starts.
Over 7.5
These offenses are just so explosive that it’s hard for me to imagine a low-scoring game, although Game 1 did finish 3-1. Since then, though, both games have gone comfortably over behind power displays from both teams despite the starting pitchers in those games being nominally pretty good. While Castillo is in hot form, Scherzer isn’t, and I shudder to think of a pitcher with a second-percentile barrel rate going up against a lineup featuring Cal Raleigh, Eugenio Suárez, Rodríguez, Josh Naylor, and Randy Arozarena. It’s not like Castillo is a perfect pitcher, either; his hard hit rate is in the eighth percentile.
Max Scherzer 5+ Strikeouts Thrown
While the Blue Jays don’t whiff much, the Mariners do whiff quite a lot. They’ve struck out 93 times in eight games, five more than any other team, and Toronto’s starter has reached five strikeouts in every game this series except for Game 2, when Trey Yesavage had four punch-outs. It just depends how long Blue Jays manager John Schneider wants to keep Scherzer in the game. While his bullpen has had an off day to rest after Yesavage lasted just four innings and got some length out of Shane Bieber last night, it might be worthwhile to trust Scherzer as long as he’s pitching decently.
