There are only three teams in the NFL with one loss on the season – Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay. No, I’m not including Green Bay because of the cowardly tie. The Mike Tomlin streak of never having a losing season looks to be intact, but there’s still a lot of football left to be played and this season hinges on the health of a soon-to-be 42 year old Aaron Rodgers.
Rodgers has been outstanding to start the season, completing 68.8% of his passes for 1,021, 10 touchdowns and only three interceptions. The average yards per attempt is 7.87 and he’s only been sacked nine times, tied for the fourth-fewest. The 105.4 quarterback rating is seventh-best but the EPA per dropback is 16th-best.
The rushing attack hasn’t been good for Pittsburgh, as the EPA per carry is 12th-lowest, while the 3.4 yards per carry are the third-lowest. Those rankings could spike after Thursday night’s performance, though, as Cincinnati is allowing the fifth-highest EPA per carry. The eight rushing touchdowns allowed are tied for the third-most.
The pass defense has been poor as well for Cincinnati. The EPA per dropback is sixth-highest and the 13 passing touchdowns are tied for the third-most. Cincinnati has 11 sacks on the season but the pressure rate is the ninth-lowest and their best pass rusher, Trey Hendrickson, may be out due to a back issue. Cincinnati plays zone defense at the 16th-highest rate and Rodgers has posted the ninth-highest EPA per dropback against zone defense this season.
The path of least resistance for the Pittsburgh offense is….all. Production will likely be determined by the game script and how the Cincinnati offense performs.
Cincinnati built its team around Joe Burrow and the offense. Unfortunately, Burrow suffered an injury in Week 2 and the Bengals replaced him with Jake Browning. The same initials strategy brought no solace as Browning struggled and, after four games, was replaced. Learning that the same initials have no bearing on production, Cincinnati eschewed that strategy and went for the simple formula of replacing one Joe with another Joe. Flacco got the start in Week 6 and went 29-of-45 for 219 yards and two touchdowns.
Flacco was more than competent and delivered the ball to the explosive playmakers at receiver. He could have success against a Steelers defense that has allowed the ninth-highest EPA per dropback and surprisingly only has seven sacks on the season, the fifth-lowest total. Pittsburgh has only allowed three passing touchdowns, though, and has racked up two interceptions.
The Pittsburgh run defense has been decent, notching the 11th-lowest EPA per carry, four rushing touchdowns and 4.1 yards per carry. That should be more than enough to stymie a Bengals rushing attack that has posted the second-lowest EPA per carry, scored two rushing touchdowns and is tied for the lowest yards per carry at 3.1.
That said, weird things tend to happen on Thursday Night Football, so expect the unexpected.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (PIT @ CIN)
Captain’s Picks
Joe Flacco ($14,100 CP): The Bengals can’t run the ball and banging their heads into this iteration of the Steel Curtain seems unwise. Pittsburgh is likely to put points on the board and Cincinnati had no issues letting Flacco go wacco last week, throwing 45 times. I’d expect big volume once again and the efficiency could even be better since he’s now had an extra week to establish chemistry with the offense.
UTIL Plays
Ja’Marr Chase ($12,000): Chase caught 10 of 12 targets for 94 yards and a touchdown last week with Flacco under center. Flacco is a veteran, so he’s not going to get overwhelmed by schemes or the environment. In addition, he still has the arm and understands that getting the ball to Chase, in particular, is of paramount importance. Last season, Chase finished with 86 and 96 yards while scoring a touchdown in both meetings with Pittsburgh.
Darnell Washington ($2,000): We need value and Washington seems like a viable candidate. Granted, the Steelers’ tight end depth chart is filled with options galore, but Washington did play 80% of the snaps last week and ended with three receptions on five targets for 62 yards. Four tight ends for Pittsburgh received at least one target, but Washington’s five led the way.
Noah Fant ($3,600): Sticking with tight ends, but going to the other side, is Fant, who caught all four targets last week for 27 yards. On the season, you gotta give it up to him for consistency because he’s finished with 26, 28, 26 and 27 yards on five, four, five and four targets. He does have one touchdown on the season. Fant could see more opportunities in this one as the depth chart at tight end has been thinned out with both Mike Gesicki and Tanner Hudson out with injuries.
Fades
Chase Brown ($8,000): Brown has three games with single-digit FPTS. The other three games were between 10 and 13 FPTS. The offensive line is poor, but more concerning is that Samaje Perine has become a more significant part of the backfield. During the first four weeks, Brown garnered a snap share above 70%. The past two weeks, Brown has been at 53% and 54% while Perine was at 47% and 46%. Perine out-targeted Brown last week, 3-2.
THE OUTCOME
Weird things happen on Thursday night. This game is in Cincinnati and I think Flacco does go wacco while the defense makes a few plays.
Final Score: Steelers 24, Bengals 27
